【作者】 锁斌； 程永生； 曾超； 李军；

【Author】 SUO Bin,CHENG Yong-sheng,ZENG Chao,LI Jun (Institute of Electronic Engineering,CAEP,Mianyang 621900,China)

【机构】 中国工程物理研究院电子工程研究所；

【摘要】 目前对于非单调关联系统的失效概率计算中,往往假定系统中各个单元的失效概率为精确值。但实际中,由于随机不确定性和认知不确定性的存在,单元失效概率往往表现为不精确概率。基于证据理论,研究了不精确概率下一类典型非单调关联系统——r-to-s-out-of-n系统的失效概率的计算方法。该方法采用证据理论表示单元失效概率,融合多源信息,根据证据推理,得出r-to-s-out-of-n系统的失效概率的上下界。最后通过两个算例说明了所提出方法是有效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the failure probability calculation of non-coherent system,each unit in the system is supposed to be const.But in reality,as there are aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in system,unit failure probability is always imprecise.To calculate the system failure probability in this case,evidence theory is used to represent unit failure probability.Multisource evidences are combined and lower and upper bounds of system failure probability are obtained by evidential reasoning.Last,two examples are given to show the effectiveness of proposed method.更多还原