【作者】 马宗文； 许学工；

【Author】 MA Zong-wen,XU Xue-gong (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University;Key Laboratory of Analysis and Simulation of Earth Surface Processes.Ministry of Education;Beijing 100871,China)

【机构】 北京大学城市与环境学院地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室；

【摘要】 径流在年内分配是不均匀的,探讨径流年内分配规律具有重要的意义。选取黄河上游贵德与头道拐两个典型水文站50多年的天然月径流量数据,计算逐年的集中度与集中期,并对集中度进行时间序列分析与小波分析。结果表明,黄河上游径流年内分配存在较大的不均匀性。主要结论有:1)20世纪50-60年代与80年代是径流分配不均的高峰期,并预测2010年前后径流年内分配也会出现较大的不均;2)在长时间尺度上,黄河上游径流年内分配趋于缓和,根本原因是人类活动和气候变化;3)径流年内分配存在多时间尺度振荡特征,有3-4a、7-8a以及20多年的变化周期;4)黄河上游年内最大径流出现在7月下旬,长期看有提前趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Runoff distribution during the year is uneven,so it is of great significance to inquire the law of runoff distribution.This paper selected two typical hydrological stations on the upper Yellow River,using more than 50 years of natural monthly runoff data to calculate the runoff concentration degree(RCD) and runoff concentration period(RCP).And then we made time series analysis and wavelet analysis based on the RCD.The results showed that there was a large heterogeneity in allocation of the Yellow River runoff during the year.The main conclusions included:1) the 50-60 years and 80 years of the 20th century were the peak of the uneven distribution of runoff and predicted that around the year 2010,runoff would also appear larger uneven distribution;2) At the long time scale,annual runoff distribution tended to be gently,and the root cause was human activity and climate change;3)It had multi-time scale oscillation characteristics in the runoff distribution during the year,and there were 3-4a,7-8a,as well as 20 years of change in cycles;4) The maximum runoff usually turned up in late July,and there were a early trends in the long run, varying numbers of days in advance.更多还原