【作者】 朱新蓉； 徐灼； 周婧；

【Author】 Xu Zhuo, Zhu Xin-rong, Zhou Jing (School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, 430073, China)

【机构】 中南财经政法大学金融学院；

【摘要】 本文基于IS-LM模型和新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线分析利率市场化改革给货币政策利率渠道造成的改变。在货币政策通过市场利率,作用于产出缺口和货币缺口,进而影响通胀的传导机制中,利率市场化改变了产出缺口和货币缺口各自对通货膨胀的影响。这种改变是由于与管制利率相比,市场化利率更能够随通胀预期的变动而相应波动。实证分析针对我国利率双轨制的改革阶段性目标,着重于检验利率双轨制确立之前和之后的一段较长时期内,货币政策经由利率渠道作用于通胀的机制的差别。通过MS-VAR模型的实证可以支持理论分析的基本结论。实证还显示,利率市场化后货币缺口对通货膨胀的影响上升,拆借利率对产出缺口和货币缺口的影响增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the IS-LM model and the new Keynesian-Phillips curve, this paper analysed the change of the interest rate channel of monetary policy caused by the interest rate liberalization. In the transmission mechanism that monetary policy changes the market interest rate to act on the output gap and the monetary gap, and therefore impacts on inflation, the interest rate liberalization could change the output gap’s and the monetary gap’s impact on inflation. This is because compared to the controlled interest rate, the market interest rate has more ability to fluctuate according to the inflation expectation. The empirical study focused on the establishment of the dual-track interest rate system, which is the stage goal of the interest rate liberalization revolution in China. It concentrated on testing the difference of the mechanism that monetary policy acts on inflation through interest rate channel, during the relative long time before and after the establishment of the dual-track interest rate system. The empirical study by MS-VAR could support the basic conclusion of Theorectial analysis. The empirical study also showed that the monetary gap’s impact on inflation, the SHIBOR’s impact on output gap and monetary gap had increased after interest rate liberalization.更多还原