【作者】 王志忠； 王树林； 祁虹； 张谦； 林永增； 李智峰；

【Author】 WANG Zhi-zhong,WANG Shu-lin,QI Hong,ZHANG Qian,LIN Yong-zeng,LI Zhi-feng (Cotton Research Institute,Hebei Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050051,China)

【机构】 河北省农林科学院棉花研究所；

【摘要】 以1919-2010年中国棉花年种植面积和皮棉产量为资料,采用Box-Jenkins建模原理及ARI-MA(p,d,q)动态模型对中国棉花面积和产量时间序列的演变规律进行了拟合及预测研究。结果显示,所建ARIMA(2,1,2)模型的残差序列均为白噪声,AIC分别为7.878和7.426,表明模型结构合理、拟合效果好;两年试报结果,相对精度89.14%～99.53%;可见,运用该模型对中国棉花面积和皮棉产量的时间序列进行拟合及预测是可行的,预测2011年中国棉花种植面积及皮棉产量分别为475.89万hm2和658.58万t。该项研究为了解我国棉花生产的变化趋势及发展前景提供了一种新的研究途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the cotton area and the lint yield from 1919to 2010in China,according to BoxJenkins theory and ARIMA(p,d,q)dynamic model,the variation law of time series of cotton area and lint yield in China was simulated and predicted.The results showed:the deviation of ARIMA (2,1,2)model were all the white noise series,and the AIC was 7.878and 7.426respectively,which indicated that the model had a reasonable structure and good fittest.The relative accuracy of prediction test for 2009and 2010were 89.14%～99.53%.The area and lint yield in China for 2011 were predicted as 4,758,900hectares and 6,585,800tons,respectively.A new research way was set up for the researchers of the cotton to grasp the development trend and prospect of cotton in China.更多还原