【作者】 程宝栋； 陈伟； 田明华；

【Author】 CHENG Bao-dong,CHEN Wei,TIAN Ming-hua (School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,100083)

【机构】 北京林业大学经济管理学院；

【摘要】 加入WTO十年间,我国木材产品对外贸易和木材产业实现了快速发展。为了研究入世十年来我国木材产品对外贸易与木材产业发展的关系,本文选取木材产业产值、木材产品进出口额,并构造了木材产品出口结构相似度指数,通过格兰杰因果关系检验,验证各变量之间的关系。实证结果表明,木材产品进口拉动了木材产业的发展,木材产业的发展促进了木材产品出口。结合实证分析,论文从对外贸易、国内市场以及产业发展等角度提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has been the member of WTO for ten years.In this decade,China’s foreign trade of wood products and timber industry achieved rapid development.Order to study the The relationship between China’s foreign trade of wood products and the development of timber industry,the paper verifys each relationship between the variables witch are the output value of the timber industry,the import and export volume of wood products and the wood products export structure similarity index by the Granger causality test.The results show that imports of wood products stimulate the development of the timber industry and the development of the timber industry promotes the exports of timber products.Combining empirical analysis,the paper proposes policy recommendations from the perspective of foreign trade,the domestic market as well as industrial development.更多还原