【作者】 王增忠；

【Author】 WANG Zeng-zhong;College of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Normal University;

【机构】 上海师范大学建筑工程学院；

【摘要】 现代建筑工程项目往往投资额巨大且技术复杂,这就需要将它包含的单项或子项作为动态风险管理的对象,选择性的进行风险分析、评价和管理,进而指导工程项目投资与建设。本文基于工作分解结构(WBS)与风险分解结构(RBS)进行项目投资风险辨识,采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术为建筑工程项目成本风险提供定量分析,通过对不确定因素和变量数据的模拟进行回归分析可以得出包含更多随机和不确定因素参与的具有定量性质的敏感性分析,并用案例详细说明了基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法的建筑工程成本风险分析的方法和过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the investment of modern construction project is huge and its technology is complicated, it is necessary to conduct dynamic risk management for its sub items, and selectively conduct risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk administration to guide the investment and construction of the project. Based on work breakdown structure(WBS) and risk breakdown structure(RBS) to identify the risk of project investment, Monte-Carlo simulation technique is used in this paper to provide quantitative risk analysis for construction project cost. The simulation of uncertainties and variable can be concluded and the sensitivity of quantitative analysis which contains more of random factors with characteristics can be induced. The method and process is given out by a case study which include the details of risk analysis of a construction project cost basing on Monte-Carlo simulation method.更多还原