【作者】 陈宁； 吴坚； 王移风； 徐建军； 董红召；

【Author】 Chen Ning~1,Wu Jian~1,Wang Yifeng~1,Xu Juanjun~2,Dong Hangzao~2 1.School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hang Zhou 310023 2.School of Mechanical Engineering,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hang Zhou 310011

【机构】 浙江科技学院机械与汽车工程学院； 浙江工业大学机电工程学院；

【摘要】 短时城市交通流预测因受限于多种约束条件而难以准确实现。针对此问题,在分析城市交通流的分形特性及其与其它领域分形预测技术相似性的基础上,提出了面向交通流短时预测的改进分形预测模型。模型根据交通流的实际状况设定分形维数的下限,并且将交通流以周为尺度的相似特性引入模型中,以提高预测的精度。通过对改进分形预测模型及其预测分析方法在杭州市交通管控系统中的成功应用,证明,本文提出的改进预测模型能够满足城市交通流短时预测系统的较高精度需求。更多还原

【Abstract】 It’s very difficult to predict the nonlinear traffic flow message,especially short-time traffic flow.To solve the issue,the nonlinear fractal phenomenon of urban traffic is analyzed.Based on the fractal prediction technology applied in other fields,a dedicated improved fractal model is raised to predict short-time traffic flow parameter.A minimum fractal dimension is given according to the distinguished concrete traffic circumstance in the model.The weekly traffic similarity is also inducted to improve the accuracy of the model.Finally,the improved fractal model is employed to predict the traffic flow in Hangzhou city.The experiment result shows the improved fractal method proposed here possesses a high prediction precision.更多还原