【作者】 陈洪转； 王贡献； 赵强强；

【Author】 CHEN Hong-zhuan,WANG Gongxian,ZHAO Qiangiang (School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing 210016)

【机构】 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院；

【摘要】 基于logistic模型,建立了农业产业系统的共生演化模型,研究了农业产业系统演化的均衡问题和演化规律,基于自组织理论运用熵变分析了我国农业产业系统的演变方向,计算得出我国农业产业系统整体来讲熵值大于零,系统结构还处于一种调整状态,渔业的熵值最大,其无序度最强,调整的可能性和程度最大。最后对种植业、林业、渔业、畜牧业等产业从1985-2006年的演变做了实证分析,得出我国渔业在1999年左右其增长速度达到鼎盛时期,目前已经进入产业演化周期的衰退期,虽然产量还在逐年增加,但增加速度缓慢;种植业在2003年后产量虽增加速度较快,但已进入演化周期的衰退期;林业和畜牧业系统仍处于演化的增速期,但增长速度较缓,我们应给予政策性关注。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the logistic model,evolution models of system of agricultural industrialization were established,the balanced system of agricultural industrialization and four evolution rules were discussed。Based on self-organization theory,this paper analyzed the trends in the evolution of China’s agricultural system using entropy change,calculated that the entropy value of China’s agricultural industry is greater than zero over all in terms,system architecture is still in a restructuring,the entropy value of fisheries is the largest,and the degree of disorder is strongest,so the possibility of adjusting is maximum. then for the evolution of farming,forestry,fisheries,animal husbandry and other industries to do the empirical studies,the result is Chinese fishing industry has entered a recession period of the evolution of industry cycle,its growth rate has reached peak in 1999,even though the production is still increasing year by year,but the increasing speed is very slow.The farming production has entered a recession period of the evolution of industry cycle also,while the production increasing speed is quick since 2003.The forestry and animal husbandry systems are still in a growth period of evolution,the production is still increasing year by year which the increasing speed is very slow.更多还原