【作者】 冯娟； 王海燕；

【Author】 FENG Juan,WANG Hai-yan (Institute of System Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

【机构】 东南大学系统工程研究所；

【摘要】 供应链系统的稳定性是库存和订单等状态变量随时间变化的动态行为,而牛鞭效应是库存和订单关于顾客需求的放大关系,供应链管理策略会对这两种供应链动力学行为产生影响。为了通过供应链系统的稳定性分析寻找牛鞭效应的控制策略,本文首先在指数平滑需求预测和APIOPBCS订单策略下建立了单级供应链系统的状态空间模型,通过解析分析的方法获得了使供应链系统状态稳定的订单策略的参数取值范围。然后在顾客需求是AR(1)的假设下,通过仿真计算说明了在不稳定区域中牛鞭效应明显大于稳定区域,分别分析了稳定区域和不稳定区域中牛鞭效应与订单策略参数的关系,为从供应链系统稳定区域中寻找牛鞭效应的控制策略提供了具体途径和手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Stability of supply chain is a dynamics behavioral that describes changes of inventory and orders over time.The bullwhip effect reveals the amplification of inventory and orders compared consumer demand.The strategy of control has effects on the stability and bullwhip effect in supply chain system.In order to find measures to control bullwhip effect through the stability analysis:Firstly,a dynamic model of supply chain system was proposed under exponential smoothing method and Automatic Pipeline,Variable Inventory and Order Based Production Control System and stability area was confirmed via analytical analysis.Secondly,the simulation,which was under AR(1) demand,indicates that bullwhip effect in instability area is more obviously than that in stability area.At last,the relationship between ordering parameters and bullwhip effect was studied separately in instability area and stability area,which provides the bullwhip effect control with approaches.更多还原