【作者】 吕萍； 刘东； 赵菲菲；

【Author】 Lv Ping1,LIU Dong1,2,Zhao Feifei1 (1 School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;2 Postdoctoral Scientific Research Mobile Station of Agriculture and Forestry Economic Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

【机构】 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院； 东北农业大学农林经济管理博士后科研流动站；

【摘要】 水资源承载力是进行生态环境建设和社会经济发展的基础。针对目前建三江分局水资源开发利用中存在的水安全问题,运用灰色关联分析构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,将熵值法引入评价指标权重计算,建立了水资源承载力模糊综合评价模型,并应用该模型对建三江分局下属15个农场2008年的水资源承载力的进行了评价。结果表明:建三江分局大部分农场水资源承载力已接近饱和,开发潜力不大,有必要采取管理和控制措施。研究结果为建三江分局水资源保护及可持续开发利用提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources carrying capacity is the foundation of programming of ecological environment construction and social economy development. In view of the water security issues existed in developing and utilizing water resources in Jiansanjiang branch bureau,this study evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of fifteen farms belong to Jiansanjiang branch bureau in 2008. The criteria system for water resources carrying capacity evaluation was established by grey correlation analysis. The article introduced the entropy theory into the calculation of weight,and established the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. The results show that the water resources carrying capacities of most farms in Jiansanjiang branch bureau have almost reached the high point,and there is low exploitation potential. It is necessary to carry out administration and control measures. The results play an important role in providing scientific evidences for water resources protection and sustainable utilization in Jiansanjiang branch bureau.更多还原