【作者】 兰勇； 周发明；

【Author】 LAN Yong ZHOU Faming (School of Business, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, 410128, China)

【机构】 湖南农业大学商学院；

【摘要】 产能过剩与相对需求不足是我国钢铁、铝等产能约束型行业面临的突出问题。本文通过Hart-Tirole模型的扩展和延伸分析了产能过剩与需求不足并存行业的纵向一体化动机、条件及影响,得出一些新的结论:当下游企业规模差异不大,纵向一体化的交易成本节约或效率改善足以抵消纵向合并成本时,完全一体化会出现;下游需求不足为上下游纵向一体化创造动机,该动机随并购成本下降而增加;需求不足条件下纵向一体化的排斥效应将导致上游过剩产能退出市场,退出的可能性随上游投资成本的增加而增加。最后运用模型结论对我国铝行业的纵向一体化现象进行了评论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The scarce needs and surplus production capacity are the main problems confronted by the industries with restricted production capacity such as steel and aluminium. Through the expansion of the Hart-Tirole model, this paper analyses the motivation, the condition and the influence of vertical integration in such industries, and get some new conclusions. When the differences in the scale of downstream companies are little, and the economization of transaction cost or the efficiency improvation can counteract M&A cost of vertical integration, bandwagon vertical integration appears. The downstream scarce needs create motivation for vertical integration, and the motivation become stronger with the decline of the M&A cost. The foreclose possibly make surplus production capacity exit from market, and the likelihood of exit become more with the increase of upstream investment cost. At last, the model conclusions are used to remark on the vertical integration of Chinese aluminium industry.更多还原