【作者】 张斌； 陈建国； 吴金生； 文仁强；

【Author】 Bin Zhang 1,2,Jianguo Chen 1,Jinsheng Wu 2,Renqiang Wen 3 1 Center for Public Safety Research,Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,Chiuna 2 Zhejiang Research Institute of Meteological Science,Hangzhou 310017,China 3 Coastal and Marine Disaster Reduction Center of State Oceanic Administration,Beijing 100194,China

【机构】 清华大学工程物理系公共安全研究中心； 浙江省气象科学研究所； 国家海洋局海洋减灾中心；

【摘要】 为了快速科学的了解台风灾害发生后灾区救灾物资的类型、数量及其在时序上和空间上的需求情况,通过对中国登陆台风历史资料的统计,分析历史台风灾情、成灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、区域应急能力等,提出了基于精细网格的台风灾损空间模型及应急物资需求定性预测模型。根据此模型能在灾害过程中快速预测灾区灾害情况,预测灾区救援物资的定性需求。最后将该模型运用于台风的实例中,验证了模型科学有效。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to quickly understand the real need of relief supplies in disaster area after typhoon disaster,predict the type and amount of supplies needed in the timing and space.Through analysising the history of the typhoon disaster,disaster factors,hazard-affected bodies and the regional emergency response capacity,this paper put forward a emergency material demand forecast model in Typhoon disaster based on the fine grid of geographical data.According to this model can rapidly predict the disasters and the qualitative needs of relief supplies In the process of disaster.Finally,the model is used in Typhoon example to forecast martial demand to verify the scientific and effectiveness of the model.更多还原