【作者】 高超； 陈实；

【Author】 Chao Gao 1,2 , Shi Chen ,1 1 College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241000,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China

【机构】 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院； 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 极端气象水文事件是气候变化领域的重要研究内容之一。以淮河流域176个气象站点的1958-2007年温度、降水和蚌埠水文站径流数据为研究对象,定义了不同极端事件的阈值,采用线性回归和MK秩次相关法来分析其变化特征,得出:极端高温逐年下降、极端低温逐年上升,而出现极端高温和极端低温的天数都在下降,就淮河流域整体而言,其气温是呈现变化幅度减缓的缓慢增温趋势;淮河流域高于极端降水阈值的天数1958-2007年间没有明显变化趋势,极端降水占全年降水也没有明显的增减趋势与全国其他流域呈现的极端降水呈增加趋势的特征不一致;蚌埠水文站极端洪水在1958-2007年间总体没有明显变化趋势,但从1992年开始其发生日数及其占全年径流量比例有所增加,且占全年径流量比例增加更快,反映极端洪水发生的流量增加迅速,极端枯水阈值出现较为显著波动变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on observed temperature and precipitation of 176 meteorological station and hydrological data of Bengbu hydrological station in 1958-2007, The tendencies of extreme temperature, precipitation and run off events in the Huaihe basin were analyzed by line regression and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that 1) extreme high temperature displayed a relatively decreasing trend and extreme low temperature is increasing, but the total days of the extreme high/low temperature is decreasing; 2)there is no trend of extreme precipitation threshold and days, it is different from the trend of whole China; 3) in general, no significance trend is in extreme flood of Bengbu hydrological station in 1958-2007, but there was relatively increasing for extreme flood since 1992.更多还原