【作者】 王志良； 李伟伟；

【Author】 Zhiliang Wang Weiwei Li North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China

【机构】 华北水利水电学院；

【摘要】 本文从混沌时间序列出发,根据昆明市1951年1月到2010年3月的月降水量,首先计算出连续两个月的降水量,运用C-C算法确定最佳滞时和嵌入维,重构相空间,说明连续两个月降水量数据集具有混沌性,并运用Volterra级数方法对降水量模拟预测,表明混沌分析方法可以提供较为精确的预测结果,为水文预报提供理论依据;其次,观察连续两个月的降水量并预测未来降水量,计算降水距平百分率,进行风险概率研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper based the chaotic time series,according to monthly precipitation from January 1951 to March 2010 in Kunming,.Firstly calculating two months of rainfall and using the C-C method to determine the optimal time delay and embedding dimension, phase space,indicating a continuous precipitation data set with chaos,and the use of Volterra series method to the simulation and prediction of precipitation,show that the chaos analysis method can provide more accurate forecasting results,provide a theoretical basis for the hydrological forecasting;Secondly,the observation of two consecutive months rainfall and predict future precipitation,calculate the percentage of the precipitation anomaly,the probability of risk.更多还原