【作者】 史军； 穆海振； 肖风劲； 徐家良； 董广涛；

【Author】 SHI Jun1,MU Haizhen1,XIAO Fengjin2,XU Jialiang1,DONG Guangtao1 (1. Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai,200030,China;2. National Climate Center,Beijing,100081,China)

【机构】 上海市气候中心； 国家气候中心；

【摘要】 台风是一种生成于热带或副热带洋面上的破坏性很强的天气系统。历史上台风对上海曾造成较大的影响和经济损失。本文利用上海气象站观测资料和上海自然地理环境、社会经济资料,参考《台风灾害风险评估技术规范》,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力四个方面开展了100m网格尺度的上海台风灾害风险评估与区划。区划结果表明,上海东部的崇明、南汇、浦东、奉贤东部以及西部的青浦西南部多为台风灾害高或次高风险区,而在中心城区西部和南部、闵行西南部、松江东北部以及奉贤和金山一些地区多为台风灾害次低或低风险区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Typhoon is defined as a tropical cyclone with the maximum wind of 34 knots or higher. It is one of the most dangerous weather systems and has caused enormous losses of life and economic damage in Shanghai. Risk management of typhoon disaster includes the identification,assessment,and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize,monitor,and control the probability and/or impact of such events. As the first step in the risk management procedure,risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard). Based on the observation data from 11 meteorological stations and natural geographic environment and social economic data,the risk assessment and regionalization of typhoon disaster were developed at a 100 m spatial resolution for Shanghai,with reference to the GIS spatial statistical function and the disaster index system,taking into account the disaster-making factors,the stability of hazard-formative environments,the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,and the disaster-resistant capacity. The results indicate that in the east parts of Shanghai,including Chongming,Nanhui,Pudong,eastern Fengxian,and southwestern Qingpu,typhoon disaster has higher risk,but in the central district of Shanghai,i.e.,southwestern Minhang,northeastern Songjiang,and some parts of Fengxian and Jinshan,typhoon disaster has lower risk.更多还原