【作者】 贾康；

【Author】 Kang JIA Director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance

【机构】 财政部财政科学研究所；

【摘要】 <正>从短期来看,今年第四季度宏观经济运行走势应该说不难预判,最大可能性是在四季度实现经济运行企稳筑底以后回升,全年GDP增长7.5%目标有较大把握在年度内如愿实现,而且可以使我们对明年经济运行进行较好的年度规划安排。因为第四季度经济回升会有惯性,如果延续到明年一季度,正好对应于今年一季度下滑0.8个点的低基数,所以明年一季度宏观数据会比较好看,整个市场信心会进一步增强,对于景气的提升和经济的稳定有一定正面效应,而且"稳增长"措施还会继续发挥积极的政策效应。这些归结为一句话,就是从短期和年度中国经济的运行来看,问题不大。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the short term, China’s economy will run smoothly and will become better. But in the long run, dissipating comparative advantage tends to lower down the economic growth rate. Moreover, the tardy technology innovation makes this situation worse. There are many doubts whether China will follow the development pattern of Latin America and fall into the middle-income trap. With the decline of credibility of the government, the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China reaches a key point of Chinese history. In order to inject more positive energy into Chinese society and break the technology ceiling which hampers Chinese companies to survive and develop, we need to intensify the institution building. Among them, a problem everybody concerns is tax reduction. Structural tax reduction is rational and feasible. Some taxes, for example, resource tax, should be raised. It helps to reflect the scarcity of natural resources and inspire people to form the habit of treasuring and effectively using resources.更多还原