【作者】 卢锋；

【Author】 Feng LU Professor,CCER at Peking University

【机构】 北京大学国家发展研究院；

【摘要】 <正>奥巴马政府如何实行新政及其成效如何,不仅关系美国经济走势,而且会对我国开放宏观经济环境以及两国经济关系产生重要影响。下面在观察美国目前经济形势特点基础上,从四个方面解读和推测奥巴马新政设计和前景,并简略点评中美经济关系新议程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Obama’s New Deal will concentrate on financial regulation,economic stimulation,deficit reduction and dollar consolidation.When financial organizations are facing bankruptcy,the top priority is to provide sufficient liquidity.After the crisis,the US government will enhance financial regulation in order to prevent crisis in the future.Because consumption is already high or too high in US,economic recovery will rely on investment.Investment will play dual roles.On one hand,investment is to boost the US economy out of current recession.On the other hand,investment is to build up industries with comparative advantage.The crisis aggravates the fiscal deficit of the US government.The federal deficit as a proportion of GDP will rise to 8.3 percent in 2009,and the ratio of public debt to GDP has been second only to the period of World War Two.As the generation of baby-boom start to spend pension funds,it will be much harder to decrease fiscal deficit.In the mid to long run,fiscal deficit will be a crucial challenge.US has the privilege to borrow money denominated in its own currency at the global market because of dollar’s domination in the international monetary system.The US government will try to maintain the dollar’s position.However,the strategy on dollar cannot be separated from other economic policies.The cooperation between the US and China will develop some new agenda.Above all,both countries will stimulate economy.Possible cooperation will lie in alternative energy,environmental protection,international financial regulation and fighting protectionism.更多还原