【作者】 张晓旭； 冯宗宪；

【Author】 XIAOXU ZHANG ZONGXIAN FENG (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

【机构】 西安交通大学经济与金融学院；

【摘要】 本文运用探索性空间数据分析方法研究了中国30个省份人均GDP之间的空间相关性,结果表明,自改革开放以来,中国各地区人均收入的空间相关逐年加强。通过计算局部空间自相关指标,本文进一步验证了中国经济中空间异质性的存在,即地区人均收入与地理位置密切相关。在此基础上,本文运用三种不同的空间经济计量模型研究了中国各省份人均GDP增长的收敛性。结果表明,空间自回归模型和广义空间模型不能正确拟合中国省级地区增长数据,而空间误差自回归模型能够满意地解释中国省级地区经济增长,这表明地理位置的影响尽管对各地区的经济增长造成了深刻的影响,但并没有改变地区经济增长的收敛趋势。空间误差自回归模型还显示劳动力和资本流动以及知识溢出在省级地区水平上是显著存在的,并且有利于地区经济增长的收敛。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper explores the spatial correlation among China’s regional per-capita GDP.With the help of the local autocorrelation index,we find that regional incomes and geographical locations have been increasingly correlated since the reform and open-door policy began. We then study theβ-convergence for the Chinese provinces by means of three spatial econometric models.The results show that the spatial autoregressive model and the general spatial model do not fit well China’s inter-provincial data,but the spatial autoregressive error model can explain much of the variation across provinces.This result indicates that geography did not stop the tendency of convergence although it affected regional economic growth rates. We have also found that labor and capital flows as well as knowledge spillovers existed across provinces and were favorable to regional economic convergence.更多还原