【作者】 钟春平； 徐长生；

【Author】 CHUNPING ZHONG (China Merchants Bank) CHANGSHENG XU (Huazhong University of Science and Technologies)

【机构】 招商银行博士后工作站； 华中科技大学经济学院；

【摘要】 论文以熊彼特的创造性破坏思路为基础,将宏观经济中的长期经济增长和短期经济波动统一为周期性经济增长过程。本文追述创造性破坏概念的生态学根源,并将生态学的结论和方法引入经济学分析,其中竞争是生态学的核心,所以分析种群之间的多种关系,并对照阐述技术(产品)之间的竞争替代类型。用数值模拟方法描述的动态替代过程和美国经济增长的经验分析表明,增长更多地体现为周期性增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper unites long run economic growth and short run fluctuation into unique cyclical economic growth process based on the idea of Creative Destruction by Joseph Schumpeter. Creative Destruction origin from ecology’ so ecological conclusions and methodologies are used for reference’ where competition is the core,therefore types of relationship between(among) pieces are introduced,then compare these relationships with technologies(product) substitution in economic system.Both numerical simulations of dynamic substitution process and empirical analysis on US economic growth show that growth process are most likely to be cyclical growth.更多还原