【作者】 刘莉亚； 苏毅；

【Author】 LIYA LIU YI SU (Shanghai University)

【机构】 上海财经大学金融学院；

【摘要】 2001—2003年是上海房地产迅速发展的三年,房地产价格的平均上涨幅度超过100%,这一上升幅度是否合理?是否真正反映了上海市的经济发展水平?上海的房地产市场是否存在"泡沫"?上海房地产未来究竟还有多大的升值潜力?正是针对这一系列问题,本文通过采用经济计量学中的协整方法测算出了近十年来上海市房地产价格的合理水平,并以此为依据,来分析这十年来上海房地产价格呈现出的失调程度及出现失调的原因所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 2001 Shanghai has experienced a rapid growth in its real estate sector and the price has doubled.Is this growth rational? Does it reflect the economic growth in Shanghai? Is there any bubble in Shanghai s real estate sector? To answer these questions’ this paper adopts the co-integration method to study a ten-year time series dataset of Shanghai s real estate prices.On the basis of the study.we analyze the rationality of the prices and the causes leading to it.更多还原