【作者】 施建淮； 郭美新；

【Author】 JIANHUAI SHI MEIXIN GUO (Peking University)

【机构】 北京大学中国经济研究中心；

【摘要】 本文构造了一个具有银行部门和消费一生产者微观基础的一般均衡模型,分析了新兴市场国家双重危机的发生机制。本文发现,下列条件可以引发双重金融危机:(1)一部分外国存款人在中期获得了关于东道国未来产出或币值的糟糕信号;(2)本国居民对未来产出或币值的不利信号反应过度而不再追加投资;(3)居民由于"动物情绪"不再追加投资。更多还原

【Abstract】 A general equilibrium model with banking sector and consumer-producer microeco- nomic foundation is constructed to analyze the mechanisms of twin crises in the emerging market economies.It is shown that the following conditions can trigger a twin crisis:(1) foreign depositors receive bad signals about the future output and foreign exchange rate;(2 ) or domestic residents overreact to the bad signals about the future output and exchange rate so they stop investing; (3) or by pure "animal spirits" domestic residents do not invest anymore.更多还原