【作者】 柴威； 范菊； 黄祥鹿； 朱仁传； 缪国平；

【Author】 CHAI Wei,FAN Ju,HUANG Xiang-lu,ZHU Ren-chuan,MIAO Guo-ping the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240

【机构】 上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 大幅横摇运动是导致船舶倾覆的主要原因之一,也是非常复杂的非线性问题。通过对船舶非线性横摇运动进行分析,建立了船舶横摇运动微分方程。引入形状滤波器,将实际海浪序列表示为白噪声通过这一形状滤波器后的输出。运用马尔科夫过程理论,采用路径积分法,在时间域内求解相应的四维Fokker-Planck方程,得到随时间演变的船舶横摇运动的转移概率密度,结合首次通过理论,求得船舶倾覆概率分布随时间的演变过程。将理论计算结果与模型试验结果进行比较,两者吻合较好。研究结果表明,路径积分法能用于预测船舶倾覆前持续时间的概率分布,从而为船舶设计和稳性衡准提供相关的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The large amplitude rolling is one of the main reasons leading to ship capsize,it is also a very complicated nonlinear problem.By analyzing nonlinear rolling motion of the ship,the nonlinear differential equation of ship rolling motion was established.The real waves were regarded as the outputs of the white noise by a filter which was introduced into the system.Under the theory of Markov process,the Four-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation in time domain was solved by using the path integration method and the transition probability density of the ship rolling movement was obtained.The evolution process of ship capsize probability distribution with the time was achieved by using first passage theory.The results obtained are compared with the corresponding model tests results.The comparison is satisfactory.The results show that the path integration method is available to predict the distribution of the first passage time and provides valuable reference to the ship design and the safe standards.更多还原