【作者】 刘纯；

【导师】 崔岩；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 日本作为实施量化宽松货币政策的先驱,其政策变动对国内外经济产生了深远影响。随着经济形势的不断变化,日本对量化宽松货币政策的频繁调整,进一步加剧了其货币政策的不确定性。基于这一经济背景,本文以日本量化宽松货币政策不确定性对其经济的影响作为研究主题,分析具体的影响机制,并给我国避免货币政策不确定性对经济产生影响供启示。首先,本文概述了货币政策不确定性的定义以及其经济影响的理论基础,然后对日本货币政策的历史演变、当前状态和未来趋势进行分析,重点关注了2008年金融危机后,日本央行推行的一系列量化宽松货币政策。通过对日本货币政策不确定性指数的分析,发现该指数与日本量化宽松货币政策的变动密切相关。其次,本文构建了一个六变量TVP-VAR模型,引入基础货币量,实证分析了2008年10月至2022年12月量化宽松货币政策不确定性对日本物价水平和产出的影响。研究结果表明,日本量化宽松政策不确定性对经济的影响与日本经济环境以及政策的变化紧密相关。其中,货币政策不确定性对物价水平的影响具有异质性,在不同经济阶段和政策调整时期存在差异并且出现了结构性的变化,对日本通货紧缩的现状产生影响;货币政策不确定性对产出的影响有一定的非对称性,总体上为负向的冲击,但是在经济萧条时期,货币政策不确定性对产出的负面影响相对较大,经济复苏时期,货币政策不确定性对产出的负面影响有所减弱。最后,本文还探讨了货币政策不确定性可能的影响渠道,主要对比分析了货币政策的长期利率渠道和资产价格渠道。实证研究发现这两个渠道的影响具有一定的局限性,且在不同时间段表现出不同的特征,货币政策不确定性通过长期利率影响物价水平主要集中在国际金融危机和疫情冲击时期,而该渠道对产出的影响并不显著;通过资产价格渠道影响物价水平主要集中于经济复苏时期,而该渠道对产出在研究的各时间段内都出现了不同程度的影响。基于前面的研究结果,本文总结了日本货币政策经验教训对中国的政策启示,强调了增强政策稳定性与可预期性、完善机制稳定价格、政策系统配合的重要性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Japan,as a pioneer in implementing quantitative easing(QE)monetary policy,has seen its policy changes exert profound impacts on both domestic and international economies.In response to shifting economic conditions,Japan’s frequent adjustments to its QE monetary policy have heightened the uncertainty of its monetary policy.Against this economic backdrop,this paper takes the impact of Japan’s QE monetary policy uncertainty on its economy as the research subject,analyzing the specific mechanisms of influence to provide insights for China to avoid the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the economy.Firstly,this paper outlines the definition of monetary policy uncertainty and its theoretical basis for economic impact.It then analyzes the historical evolution,current state,and future trends of Japan’s monetary policy,with a particular focus on the series of QE monetary policies adopted by the Bank of Japan following the 2008 financial crisis.The paper also examines the index of Japan’s monetary policy uncertainty,finding a close link between this index and changes in Japan’s QE policies.Secondly,this paper constructs a six-variable TVP-VAR model,incorporating the base money supply,to empirically analyze the impact of the uncertainty of the quantitative easing monetary policy on Japan’s price level and output from October 2008to December 2022.The research results show that the impact of Japan’s quantitative easing policy uncertainty on the economy is closely related to Japan’s economic environment and policy changes.Among them,the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the price level is heterogeneous,with differences and structural changes in different economic stages and policy adjustment periods,which affects the current deflationary situation in Japan;the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on output has a certain degree of asymmetry,with an overall negative impact,but during economic depression,the negative impact of monetary policy uncertainty on output is relatively greater,while during economic recovery,the negative impact of monetary policy uncertainty on output is somewhat weakened.Finally,the paper explores the potential channels through which monetary policy uncertainty may exert its influence,mainly comparing and analyzing the long-term interest rate channel and the asset price channel of monetary policy.Empirical research finds that the impact of these two channels is somewhat limited and exhibits different characteristics in different time periods.The impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the price level through the long-term interest rate channel is mainly concentrated during the global financial crisis and the pandemic shock periods,while its impact on output is not significant.The impact on the price level through the asset price channel is mainly concentrated during economic recovery periods,while its impact on output varies to different degrees across all time periods studied.Based on the research findings,the paper summarizes the policy implications for China from Japan’s monetary policy experience,emphasizing the importance of enhancing policy stability and predictability,improving mechanisms to stabilize prices,and ensuring coordinated policy systems.更多还原