【作者】 王硕；

【导师】 曾坚； 王卫红；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 土木水利， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随极端天气和城镇化进程加剧,城市雨洪问题日益突出,对居民生命和社会经济造成了威胁。对此,以适应性主导的雨洪理念油然而生。然而,如何将适应性理念运用到风险辨识中,有效指导城市规划的机制尚不明确。因此,进行科学的雨洪风险综合辨识模型构建与规划策略研究具有重要的现实意义。遂本文以温州市为例,构建了“危险性-脆弱性”的城市雨洪风险辨识理论与方法模型,总结了城市雨洪风险的空间分布规律,完成了重点区域的精细化雨洪灾害模拟,提出了应对雨洪危机的规划策略。论文主要有以下四项内容:其一,通过水动力模型,借助MIKESHE模拟温州市雨洪灾害风险区位分布。模拟发现温州市雨洪灾害具有较强的空间集聚性。最大径流流速与最大淹没范围均呈现“西部低,东部高,中心聚集”的空间特征,与地形地表、水系分布等因素具有较高的关联度。其二,基于危险性-脆弱性框架下,综合考虑致灾因子-孕灾环境-承灾体-防灾减灾能力四个因素,通过随机森林和多指标综合评价法,借助ArcGIS和Python辨析温州市综合雨洪风险,提出了雨洪风险辨识模型。经过实证研究,发现温州市雨洪风险呈现出“东部中部集聚,四周较低”的空间分布特征。东部沿海地区与中心城区属于雨洪高风险地带,城市建成区密集,人口分布集中,一旦发生灾害将给城市居民与社会经济带来难以承受的损失。其三,选取鹿城区的典型区域进行产汇流模拟验证。利用SWMM软件进行重点区域模拟与分区优化,在不调整城市内现有排水系统的前提下通过生态型优化手段可以缓解地区积水情况,缓解洪峰力量,有效降低雨洪灾害风险。其四,根据风险辨识结果,综合温州市发展现状和上位规划,从雨洪致灾的危险性层面,针对致灾因子提出“疏通脉络、改造驳岸”的策略,针对孕灾环境提出“与水共存、调整格局”的策略;从雨洪灾害下城市的脆弱性层面,针对承灾体提出“灰绿结合、路网分级”的策略,针对防灾减灾能力提出“以人为本、设置预警、标准管控”的策略,从生态、社会等多维度以规划手段应对温州雨洪灾害。本文构建了多学科交叉研究的城市雨洪风险辨识模型,丰富了当前研究体系,提出了针对温州市的雨洪风险规划应对策略,形成具有一定价值的城市雨洪风险“辨识-应对”规划体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the intensification of extreme weather and urbanization,the problem of urban rainwater and floods is becoming increasingly prominent,posing a threat to residents’ lives and socio-economic development.In response,the rain flood concept led by adaptability emerged spontaneously.However,the mechanism for effectively guiding urban planning by applying the concept of adaptability to risk identification is not yet clear.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to construct a scientific comprehensive identification model for rainwater and flood risks and study planning strategies.This article takes Wenzhou City as an example to construct a theoretical and methodological model for identifying urban rainwater and flood risks based on "danger vulnerability".It summarizes the spatial distribution patterns of urban rainwater and flood risks,completes refined simulation of rainwater and flood disasters in key areas,and proposes planning strategies to respond to rainwater and flood crises.The paper mainly includes the following four contents:Firstly,by using a hydrodynamic model and using MIKESHE to simulate the risk location distribution of rainwater and flood disasters in Wenzhou City.The simulation found that the rainfall and flood disasters in Wenzhou city have strong spatial agglomeration.The maximum runoff velocity and maximum inundation range both exhibit spatial characteristics of "low in the west,high in the east,and concentrated in the center",which are highly correlated with factors such as terrain,surface,and water system distribution.Secondly,based on the risk vulnerability framework,considering four factors of disaster causing factors-disaster pregnant environment-disaster bearing body-disaster prevention and reduction capacity,through the random forest and multi index comprehensive evaluation method,with Arc GIS and Python,the comprehensive storm flood risk in Wenzhou is analyzed,and a storm flood risk identification model is proposed.After empirical research,it was found that the risk of rain and flood in Wenzhou City exhibits a spatial distribution characteristic of "concentrated in the eastern and central regions,and relatively low in the surrounding areas".The eastern coastal areas and central urban areas belong to high-risk areas of rain and flood,with dense urban built-up areas and concentrated population distribution.Once a disaster occurs,it will bring unbearable losses to urban residents and socio-economic development.Thirdly,select typical areas in Lucheng District for simulation and verification of runoff generation and concentration.SWMM software is used for simulation and zoning optimization of key areas.Under the premise of not adjusting the existing drainage system in the city,ecotype optimization can alleviate regional ponding,alleviate flood peak power,and effectively reduce the risk of rain and flood disasters.Fourthly,based on the results of risk identification,taking into account the current development status and upper level planning of Wenzhou City,from the perspective of the risk of rain and flood induced disasters,a strategy of "dredging the veins and transforming the revetment" is proposed for the disaster causing factors,and a strategy of "coexisting with water and adjusting the pattern" is proposed for the disaster prone environment;From the perspective of urban vulnerability under rain and flood disasters,a strategy of "combining gray and green,and grading road networks" is proposed for the disaster bearing body.A strategy of "people-oriented,setting early warning,and standard control" is proposed for disaster prevention and reduction capabilities,and a planning approach is proposed from multiple dimensions such as ecology and society to cope with the rain and flood disasters in Wenzhou.This article constructs a multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary urban rainwater flood risk identification model,enriches the current research system,proposes a rainwater flood risk planning and response strategy for Wenzhou City,and forms a valuable urban rainwater flood risk "identification response" planning system.更多还原