【作者】 刘杰；

【导师】 冯蕴中；

【作者基本信息】 河北师范大学 ， 体育硕士（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 研究目的:在体育强国战略背景下,足球作为振兴“三大球”的重要项目受到高度重视。近年来,一系列政策性文件的出台,推动着中国足球的发展。然而,中国足球在赛场上的表现仍然存在诸多问题。技战术水平是制约中国足球竞争力提高的重要因素。现代足球比赛呈现技战术精细化、多样化的发展趋势。随着科技水平的高速发展,借助大数据和科技手段对比赛技战术表现进行科学化分析,已成为众多高水平球队提高竞技力的关键环节。鉴于此,本研究基于情境因素对中超联赛多年历史技战术数据进行深入分析,旨在为我国足球技战术分析方法的优化与应用提供理论支持,推动足球比赛技战术表现分析的科学化发展。研究方法:本研究运用了文献资料法、录像观察法、数理统计法、逻辑分析法等研究方法,并采用一般线性模型、广义混合线性模型和数据级数推断法在内的多种数据分析方法。系统分析了比赛地点、自身实力、对手实力、赛事阶段和比赛结果影响下的技战术表现特征,同时,进一步探析中超联赛致胜关键技战术指标。研究结果:(1)主场球队在总射门、射正、成功传中等24项指标显著占优,而客场球队在总抢断等4项防守指标显著占优。(2)自身实力强的球队在射正、控球率、成功抢断等29项指标显著占优,而实力较弱的球队在总长传球、运球突破成功率、黄牌3项指标显著占优。(3)当对手实力较强时,仅有拦截次数和黄牌2项防守指标显著占优,而当对手实力较弱时,射正率、直塞球、空中对抗成功等27项指标显著占优。(4)赛事上段在总长传球、运球突破成功、地面对抗成功等8项指标显著占优,而赛事下段在把握绝对进球机会、禁区内射门等5项指标显著占优。(5)胜利球队在射正、直塞球、空中对抗成功率等16项指标显著高于平局球队,而总传中、黄牌和红牌3项指标显著低于平局球队。平局球队在射正率、禁区内射门、越位等10项指标显著高于失利球队,而射门被封堵和传球成功率2项指标显著低于失利球队。胜利球队在进球率、射正率、总传球等16项指标显著高于失利球队,而进攻三区传球、总传中和红牌3项指标显著低于失利球队。(6)进球率、射正、空中对抗成功率等6项指标均能显著提高所有球队的获胜概率,在对阵下游球队时,禁区内射门和拦截次数可以显著提高球队的获胜概率。对上游球队而言,在强强对话中,传中成功率对获胜具有积极影响,在面对下游球队时直塞球显得更为关键。对下游球队而言,在对阵上游球队时,长传球、传中成功率、犯规和黄牌是致胜的关键指标。研究结论:(1)在不同情境因素的影响下,中超球队技战术表现呈现出不同的特征(2)主场球队在进攻组织方面的表现更好,客场球队只能通过增强防守来应对主场球队的进攻。(3)上游球队在进攻和防守方面都占据显著优势,下游球队只能被动地加强防守,且在进攻端更多依赖单一手段进行反击。(4)在赛季上段球队更多地依赖身体对抗和运球突破,但效率较低,随着赛季的深入,球队在进攻效率上有所提升。(5)胜利球队在进攻端的表现更好,能够更高效地创造并把握机会。平局和失利球队进攻端的创造力不足,整体进攻效率较低;平局和失利球队在防守端显得更为被动,防守纪律性较差导致产生了更多的红黄牌。(6)高质量射门和争顶高空球是所有球队取胜的关键。边路传中是上游球队在强强对话中取胜的关键,而在面对下游球队时通过直塞球攻入对方禁区更为有效。下游球队在面对上游球队时依靠激烈的身体对抗和单一进攻手段可以取得一定优势。此外,拦截在对阵下游球队时较为关键。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research Purpose:In the context of the strategy of strengthening the country through sports,soccer has been highly valued as an important project for revitalizing the“three major sports”.In recent years,a series of policy documents have been issued to promote the development of Chinese soccer.However,there are still many problems with the performance of Chinese soccer on the field.The technical and tactical level is an important factor that restricts the competitiveness of Chinese soccer.The modern soccer game presents the development trend of refinement and diversification of technical and tactical skills.With the rapid development of science and technology,the scientific analysis of game technical and tactical performance with the help of big data and technology has become a key link for many high-level teams to improve their competitive power.In view of this,this study provides an in-depth analysis of the historical technical and tactical data of the Chinese Super League for many years based on situational factors,with the aim of providing theoretical support for the optimization and application of China’s soccer technical and tactical analysis methods,and promoting the scientific development of the analysis of the technical and tactical performances of soccer matches.Research Methods:This study utilizes research methods such as video observation method,literature method,mathematical statistics method,logical analysis method,and a variety of data analysis methods including general linear model,generalized mixed linear model and data level inference method.It systematically analyzes the characteristics of technical and tactical performance under the influence of match location,own strength,opponent’s strength,tournament stage and match result,and at the same time,further analyzes the key technical and tactical indicators of winning in the Chinese Super League.Research results:(1)Home teams were significantly higher in 24 indicators such as total shots,shots on goal,and successful passes,while away teams were significantly higher in 4defensive indicators such as total steals.(2)Teams that are strong in their own right are significantly higher in 29indicators such as Shots on Goal,Ball Possession,and Successful Steals,while weaker teams are significantly higher in 3 indicators such as Total Long Passes,Dribble Breakthrough Success Rate,and Yellow Cards.(3)When the opponents are stronger,only 2 defensive indicators are significantly higher in the number of interceptions and yellow cards,while 27 indicators such as shot percentage,direct ball,and aerial confrontation success are significantly higher when the opponents are weaker.(4)The upper part of the tournament was significantly higher in 8 indicators such as total long passes,dribbling breakthrough success,and ground confrontation success,while the lower part of the tournament was significantly higher in 5 indicators such as grasping absolute goal scoring chances,and shots on goal inside the penalty area.(5)The winning team was significantly higher than the tied team in 16 metrics such as shots on target,direct kicks,and aerial confrontation success,and significantly lower than the tied team in 3 metrics such as total passes,yellow cards,and red cards.The tied team was significantly higher than the losing team in 10metrics including Shots on Goal,Shots in the Box,and Offside,while 2 metrics,Shots Blocked and Passing Success,were significantly lower than the losing team.The winning team is significantly higher than the losing team in 16 indicators such as goal percentage,shots on target and total passes,while 3 indicators such as passes in the attacking third,total passes and red cards are significantly lower than the losing team.(6)Six indicators,including goal percentage,shots on goal,and aerial confrontation success rate,significantly increase the probability of winning for all teams,and the number of shots in the box and interceptions can significantly increase a team’s probability of winning when playing against a downstream team.For upstream teams,the success rate of passes has a positive impact on winning in tough matches,and direct kicks are even more critical against downstream teams.For downstream teams,long balls,passing success rate,fouls and yellow cards are key indicators of winning against upstream teams.Research conclusion:(1)Under the influence of different contextual factors,the technical and tactical performances of Chinese Super League teams showed different characteristics(2)Home teams perform better in offensive organization,and away teams can only cope with the attacks of home teams by strengthening their defense.(3)The upstream teams have a significant advantage in both offense and defense,while the downstream teams can only passively strengthen their defense and rely more on a single means of counterattack in offense.(4)In the upper part of the season teams rely more on physical confrontation and dribbling breakthroughs,but the efficiency is low,as the season progresses,teams have improved in offensive efficiency.(5)Winning teams were better on the offensive end of the court and were able to create and capitalize on chances more efficiently.Tied and losing teams were less creative and less efficient on the offensive end;tied and losing teams were more passive on the defensive end,with less defensive discipline resulting in more red and yellow cards.(6)High-quality shots and overhead kicks are the key to victory for all teams.Side-to-side passing is the key for upstream teams to win in tough matches,while direct kicks into the opponent’s penalty area are more effective when facing downstream teams.Downstream teams can gain an advantage against upstream teams by relying on intense physical play and a single attacking tactic.In addition,interceptions are more crucial against the lower teams.更多还原