【作者】 王琳；

【导师】 贺政纲；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 物流工程与管理（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 随着电动汽车的普及,―充电时间‖一直是消费者担忧的问题之一,电动汽车换电模式可以有效缩短充电等待时间,这使得换电模式成为了促进电动汽车发展的重要方向。但投入市场初期,面临基础设施建设成本高、市场规模较小等问题,此时政府可以通过补贴有效促进换电基础设施建设和刺激消费者需求,同时也会吸引相关企业加入换电领域。为此,本文在政府分别提供换电基础设施建设补贴、电池租赁补贴或双重补贴的背景下,构建由汽车制造商主导或换电站运营商主导的电动汽车换电模式下的供应链决策模型,探究政府补贴类型及比例和权利结构差异对换电模式和对企业决策的影响。运用博弈论结合MATLAB软件以数值模拟的方式对电动汽车供应链的最优决策和整体利润进行对比分析。研究发现:(1)何种主导模式更有助于换电模式的发展与市场发展的成熟度有关,在市场发展初期,汽车制造商主导下具有一定的优势,随着消费者平均租赁时间的增加换电站运营商主导更具优势,其可以产生更大的社会福利。(2)租赁时间和消费者偏好的增加可以有效促进换电市场的发展,而换电成本系数的增加,不利于换电模式发展。没有政府补贴介入时,换电模式会陷入“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的困境,投资壁垒会抑制其发展。(3)政府提供电池租赁补贴更能扩大电动汽车市场需求,直接有效的吸引消费者,但租赁补贴应设置“补贴门槛”。换电站建设补贴可以有效促进基础设施布局,但是其对换电市场需求的刺激效果不明显,其在换电市场稳定后可以“退坡”。(4)政府提供双重补贴既可以扩大换电汽车市场,同时有助于加速布局换电基础设施。在换电站运营商主导下,政府仅提供电池租赁补贴即可,此时换电站运营商作为行业巨头,可以自负盈亏,租赁补贴可以刺激其自主投资布局换电基础设施。(5)不同权利结构下,政府补贴决策方案不同,在汽车制造商主导下,政府最优补贴方式是提供双重补贴,在换电站运营商主导下,政府最优补贴方案是提供电池租赁补贴。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the popularity of electric vehicles,charging time has always been one of the concerns of consumers,electric vehicle switching mode can effectively shorten the charging waiting time,which makes the switching mode has become an important direction to promote the development of electric vehicles.However,in the early stage of the market,faced with high infrastructure construction costs,small market size and other problems,at this time the government can effectively promote the construction of power replacement infrastructure and stimulate consumer demand through subsidies,but also attract related enterprises to join the field of power replacement.Therefore,under the background that the government provides replacement infrastructure construction subsidies,battery rental subsidies or double subsidies,this paper constructs a supply chain decision-making model under the EV replacement mode led by automobile manufacturers or power station operators,and explores the impact of the types,proportions and rights structure differences of government subsidies on the replacement mode and corporate decision-making.Using game theory and MATLAB software,the optimal decision and overall profit of electric vehicle supply chain are compared and analyzed by numerical simulation.The research findings are as follows:(1)Which dominant mode is more conducive to the development of power conversion mode is related to the maturity of market development.In the early stage of market development,the dominance of automobile manufacturers has certain advantages,and with the increase of average rental time of consumers,the dominance of power conversion station operators has more advantages,which can generate greater social welfare.(2)The increase of lease time and consumer preference can effectively promote the development of the power replacement market,while the increase of the cost coefficient of power replacement is not conducive to the development of the power replacement model.When there is no government subsidy intervention,the electricity replacement model will fall into the dilemma of chicken or egg first,and investment barriers will inhibit its development.(3)The government provides battery leasing subsidies to expand the market demand for electric vehicles and directly and effectively attract consumers,but leasing subsidies should set a subsidy threshold.Power station construction subsidies can effectively promote the layout of infrastructure,but its stimulating effect on the demand of the power exchange market is not obvious,and it can decline after the stability of the power exchange market.(4)The dual subsidies provided by the government can both expand the EV market and help accelerate the layout of the EV infrastructure.Under the leadership of the power station operator,the government only provides battery leasing subsidies,and the power station operator,as an industry giant,can be responsible for its own profits and losses,and the leasing subsidies can stimulate its independent investment in the layout of power replacement infrastructure.(5)Under different power structures,the government subsidy decision-making scheme is different.Under the dominance of automobile manufacturers,the optimal subsidy method of the government is to provide double subsidies;under the dominance of power station operators,the optimal subsidy scheme of the government is to provide battery leasing subsidies.更多还原