【作者】 高静；

【导师】 穆东；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 物流管理与工程， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 中国生命科学研究领域快速发展,研发支出稳步增长,科研试剂市场规模显著上升,预计于2031年增至千亿元人民币。科研试剂具有需求数量和需求时间随实验结果变化的特点,不确定性较高。实验过程的连贯性对于科研试剂的供应准确、及时提出了更高的要求。梳理文献发现,现有的科研试剂采购策略缺乏符合其需求特点的定量采购模型研究,也未考虑到科研试剂等产品可能由于其应用领域或观察和统计时期较短,导致无法获得准确需求规律。另外,在存在供应中断风险的采购问题中往往忽略产品同时面对需求不确定的情况。基于以上背景,本文根据需求特点和使用范围的不同分别研究通用类科研试剂和特殊类科研试剂的采购策略。在通用类科研试剂采购中,考虑到其适用范围较广,通常多周期采购,采购数量不确定。利用占线理论,建立通用类科研试剂占线采购风险回报模型,研究在仅知需求范围情况下的最优竞争比采购量。在特殊类科研试剂采购中,考虑到其在采购之前具体需求量已确定,但由于适用范围小,供应商的供货时间不稳定,建立特殊类科研试剂一次性采购模型,确定最优下单时间。在以上研究的基础上进一步分析当面临供应中断风险时,如何通过备选供应商的补充采购避免试剂短缺影响实验进程。进一步,当采购方面临紧急需求,向同行企业发出调剂采购申请,研究调剂交易达成的价格。对于通用类科研试剂,占线采购风险回报模型得到了竞争比采购量,缺货成本、决策者风险偏好水平以及试剂需求数量预测成功概率均对其产生不同程度的影响,而风险偏好水平和预测成功概率的影响是有限的。当存在供应中断风险时,备选供应商的价格和质量水平很大程度决定了是否选择从备选供应商处采购。对于特殊类科研试剂,一次性采购模型分别给出了供应商提前期分布下采购单产品和多产品对应的最优下单时间,相对于其他因素,试剂最优下单时间对供应商提前期和缺货成本表现更敏感。当存在供应风险而原有供应商和备选供应商的提前期相差不大,决策者仍会选择从价格更低的原有供应商处采购,为所有试剂选择一个供应商要优于选择不同的供应商。当采购方进行横向调剂采购时,出售方的需求时间越晚,越有可能以较低的价格将试剂调剂给采购方,而此价格有可能低于供应商处的价格。最后利用蒙特卡洛对建立的供应中断风险下的科研试剂采购模型进行模拟,进一步验证了模型的有效性和适用性,为医药研发企业等科研试剂的使用主体在最大程度避免试剂短缺的条件下尽可能降低采购成本提供了方向。本文共有图24幅,表29个,参考文献80篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of China’s life science research field and the steady growth of research and development expenditures have led to a significant rise in the size of the research reagent market.The size of China’s research market for biological reagents is expected to increase to RMB100 billion by 2031.Research reagents are characterized by high uncertainty as the quantity and time of demand vary with experimental results.The consistency of the experimental process puts forward higher requirements for the accurate and timely supply of scientific research reagents.Combing through the literature,it is found that the existing procurement strategy for scientific research reagents lacks a quantitative procurement modeling study in line with their demand characteristics,and does not take into account the fact that products such as scientific research reagents may not be able to obtain an accurate demand pattern due to their application areas or relatively short observation and statistical periods.In addition,the simultaneous exposure of products to uncertain demand is often ignored in procurement problems where there is a risk of supply disruption.Based on the above background,this thesis addresses the procurement strategies of general-purpose and special-purpose scientific research reagents respectively according to the different demand characteristics and usage scope.In the procurement of general-purpose scientific research reagents,considering its wider scope of application,it is usually procured in multiple cycles and the procurement quantity is uncertain.By using the line-of-sight theory,the risk-reward model of line-of-sight procurement of general-purpose research reagents is established,and the optimal competitive ratio of procurement quantity is investigated when only the range of demand is known.In the procurement of special category scientific research reagents,considering that the specific demand quantity has been determined before procurement,but due to the small scope of application,the supplier’s delivery time is unstable,the one-time procurement model of special category scientific research reagents is established to determine the optimal time of placing an order.Based on the above research,we further analyze how to avoid the shortage of reagents affecting the experimental process through the supplementary procurement of alternative suppliers when facing the risk of supply interruption.Further,when the procurement side is facing urgent needs,we will send out the transfer procurement application to the peer enterprises and study the price of the transfer transaction.For general reagents,the risk-reward model for placeholder purchasing yields a competitive ratio of purchases to volume,with the cost of stock-outs,the decision-maker’s level of risk preference,and the predicted probability of success for the number of reagents demanded all having varying degrees of influence,while the level of risk preference and the predicted probability of success have a limited effect.When there is a risk of supply disruption,the price and quality level of alternative suppliers largely determines the choice of purchasing from alternative suppliers.For the special class of research reagents,the one-time procurement model gives the optimal ordering time for single and multiple products under the supplier lead time distribution,and the optimal ordering time for reagents is more sensitive to the supplier lead time and out-of-stock cost than other factors.When there is a supply risk and the lead times of the original supplier and the alternative suppliers are not much different,the decision maker will still choose to purchase from the original supplier with lower price,and choosing one supplier for all reagents is better than choosing different suppliers.When purchasers make horizontal transfers,the later the seller’s demand is,the more likely it is that the reagents will be transferred to the purchaser at a lower price,which is likely to be lower than the price at the supplier.Finally,the Monte Carlo simulation is used to establish a research reagent procurement model under the risk of supply disruption,which further verifies the validity and applicability of the model,and provides a direction for the main body of scientific research reagents,such as pharmaceutical research and development enterprises,to minimize the procurement cost while avoiding shortages to the greatest extent possible.There are 24 figures,29 tables and 80 references in this thesis.更多还原