【作者】 张晶；

【导师】 杨若耶；

【作者基本信息】 山西财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 制造业作为一个国家的立国之本、强国之基,是推动我国经济健康稳定增长、提升综合国力的重要力量。2024年,我国全部工业增加值为40.5万亿元,制造业总体规模连续15年位居全球首位。但是,随着我国经济发展常态化,我国制造业发展面临劳动力和土地等要素成本上的约束,同时,高端制造业向发达国家逆转移,东南亚国家在中低端制造业领域抢占市场,我国制造业发展的内外部形势日益严峻。因此,中国制造业发展面临巨大的挑战。如何优化制造业结构、提高质量效益、促进制造业价值链从中低端向高端转移,实现中国制造业的升级,成为现阶段中国制造业高质量发展的关键所在。交通基础设施具有网络性特征,可以使各类要素在不同城市间实现更为高效的流动,优化地区间生产要素配置,降低生产要素流动成本,从而为制造业升级提供有力支撑。在此背景下,深入探究交通基础设施对制造业升级的影响,对于建设制造业强国具有重要意义。本文主要从以下几个方面展开研究:首先,梳理国内外文献,了解相关领域研究现状,明确交通基础设施与制造业升级的概念,并基于新经济地理理论、“点-轴系统”理论以及波特假说等相关理论,分析交通基础设施对制造业升级的影响机理;其次,对交通基础设施水平以及制造业升级水平进行总体与分维度测度,分析其发展现状;再次,构建双向固定效应模型、调节效应模型以及面板门槛模型,以2008-2022年全国30个省(市、自治区)(不含港澳台及西藏地区)为研究对象,实证分析交通基础设施对制造业升级的影响;最后,总结研究结论,提出相应对策建议。本文主要得出如下结论:(1)从全国层面看,我国交通基础设施水平呈现出整体向好的趋势,制造业升级水平呈现较大波动;从地区层面看,我国各地区交通基础设施水平与制造业升级水平呈现增长趋势,但区域发展不均衡,在交通基础设施水平方面,东中部地区综合来看高于其余地区,在制造业升级水平方面,东部地区综合来看高于其余地区,同时,我国交通基础设施水平的地区差异逐渐缩小,而制造业升级水平的地区差异呈现扩大趋势。((2)交通基础设施对制造业升级存在显著促进作用;交通基础设施分维度分析结果显示,公路基础设施对制造业升级具有显著的正向影响,而铁路与水路基础设施对制造业升级的影响不显著;制造业升级分维度分析结果显示,交通基础设施对制造业升级的经济价值维度以及绿色发展维度具有正向促进作用,对制造业结构升级维度则无显著促进作用;区域异质性分析结果显示,东部地区交通基础设施对制造业升级的促进作用显著,中部、西部以及东北地区交通基础设施对制造业升级的影响作用不显著。((3)环境规制强化了交通基础设施对制造业升级的促进作用,人口老龄化削弱了交通基础设施对制造业升级的促进作用。((4)交通基础设施对制造业升级的促进作用存在双重门槛效应,即随着交通基础设施规模的扩大,其对制造业升级的促进作用逐渐降低,且当交通基础设施规模跨过第二门槛值时,其对制造业升级的影响不显著。基于所得结论,本文提出如下对策建议:(1)继续加大交通基础设施建设力度,促进多种交通基础设施协调发展。((2)因地制宜合理布局铁路、公路以及水路等交通网络,缩小制造业升级水平区域差异。((3)加强政策引导,更好发挥交通基础设施对制造业升级的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Manufacturing industry is the foundation of a nation’s establishment and the cornerstone of its strength.It is a crucial force in driving the healthy and stable growth of China’s economy and enhancing its comprehensive national power.In 2024,China’s total industrial added value reached 40.5 trillion yuan,and the overall scale of its manufacturing industry has been the largest in the world for 15 consecutive years.However,with the normalization of China’s economic development,the manufacturing industry in China is facing constraints in terms of factor costs such as labor and land.High-end manufacturing is experiencing a reverse transfer to developed countries,while Southeast Asian countries are capturing market share in the mid-to-low-end manufacturing sector.The internal and external situation for the development of China’s manufacturing industry is becoming increasingly challenging.Therefore,China’s manufacturing industry is confronted with enormous challenges.How to optimize the structure of the manufacturing industry,improve its quality and efficiency,and promote the shift of the manufacturing value chain from the mid-to-low-end to the high-end has become the key to achieving the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry at this stage.Transportation infrastructure,with its network characteristics,enables various factors of production to flow more efficiently between different cities,optimizes the allocation of production factors across regions,and reduces the costs of factor mobility,thereby providing strong support for the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Against this backdrop,an in-depth exploration of the impact of transportation infrastructure on manufacturing upgrading is of great significance for building a manufacturing powerhouse.This paper unfolds its research from the following aspects:First,it reviews domestic and international literature to understand the current state of research in the field,clarifies the concepts of transportation infrastructure and manufacturing upgrading,and analyzes the impact mechanisms of transportation infrastructure on manufacturing upgrading based on relevant theories,including the New Economic Geography theory,the"point-axis system"theory,and Porter’s hypothesis.Second,it measures the levels of transportation infrastructure and manufacturing upgrading both overall and in specific dimensions,and analyzes their current development status.Third,it constructs a two-way fixed-effects model,a moderation model,and a panel threshold model.Using data from30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macau,Taiwan,and Tibet)from 2008 to 2022,it empirically examines the impact of transportation infrastructure on manufacturing upgrading.Finally,it summarizes the research findings and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.This paper draws the following main conclusions:(1)At the national level,the level of transportation infrastructure in our country shows an overall positive trend,while the level of manufacturing upgrading in our country exhibits significant fluctuations.At the regional level,the levels of transportation infrastructure and the level of manufacturing upgrading in various regions of China are showing an upward trend.However,regional development is unbalanced.In terms of the level of transportation infrastructure,the eastern and central regions are generally higher than other regions.In terms of the level of manufacturing upgrading,the eastern region is generally higher than other regions.And although the regional disparities in the level of transportation infrastructure in our country are gradually narrowing,the regional disparities in the level of manufacturing upgrading in our country are showing an expanding trend.(2)Transportation infrastructure has a significant positive impact on manufacturing upgrading.The sub-dimension analysis of transportation infrastructure shows that road infrastructure has a significant positive effect on manufacturing upgrading,while railway and waterway infrastructure do not have a significant impact.The sub-dimension analysis of manufacturing upgrading shows that transportation infrastructure has a positive effect on the economic value and green development dimensions of manufacturing upgrading but does not significantly promote the structural upgrading dimension.The regional heterogeneity analysis shows that transportation infrastructure in the eastern region significantly promotes manufacturing upgrading,while its impact in the central,western,and northeastern regions is not significant.(3)Environmental regulation strengthens the positive impact of transportation infrastructure on manufacturing upgrading,while population aging weakens this positive impact.(4)The promotion effect of transportation infrastructure on the of manufacturing upgrading has a double-threshold effect.As the scale of transportation infrastructure increases,its positive impact on manufacturing upgrading gradually decreases.When the scale of transportation infrastructure crosses the second threshold,its effect on manufacturing upgrading becomes statistically insignificant.Based on the findings,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Continue to increase investment in the construction of transportation infrastructure and promote the coordinated development of various types of transportation infrastructure.(2)Plan railway,road,and waterway networks in a location-specific manner to narrow the regional disparities in the levels of manufacturing upgrading.(3)Strengthen policy guidance to better leverage the role of transportation infrastructure in promoting manufacturing upgrading.更多还原