【作者】 张晓静；

【导师】 王芳；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 产业经济学， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 农业韧性是保障粮食安全、促进农村可持续发展的内在要求。面对全球价值链重构、国内农业供给侧结构性改革、粮食消费结构升级和品质化消费等内外部环境的变化,如何有效应对不确定性因素对我国农业各方面的影响和冲击,增强农业韧性,具有重要的现实意义。随着“十四五”数字经济发展规划加速落地,数字经济已逐渐成为国民经济增长的重要支撑,以数字经济引领驱动农业发展,对于保障粮食安全、提高农业韧性和实现农业高质量发展具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。文章基于2011-2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建数字经济和农业韧性的综合指标度量体系,并采用熵值法、Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数对其发展特征进行测度与分析。在此基础上,运用面板双固定效应模型、分位数模型、门槛效应模型等实证检验了数字经济对农业韧性的赋能效应,研究发现:第一,研究期内,数字经济和农业韧性整体水平呈上升趋势。在数字经济方面,数字化基础、数字产业化和产业数字化水平均呈现出高速发展的态势,其中,产业数字化增长速度最快,且总体发展水平最高。在农业韧性方面,农业韧性的适应调整能力总体上发展水平最高,重构创新能力次之,基础抵御能力最小。第二,研究期间,数字经济和农业韧性呈现不同的极化现象,且区域差异显著,主要源于区域间差异。数字经济初期存在轻微极化,随其普及发展逐渐减弱并消失。农业韧性后期极化明显,形成“右侧峰”现象,表明部分地区在应对外部冲击时表现出更强的抵御、适应和恢复能力,韧性水平显著优于其他地区。第三,数字经济能够有效赋能农业韧性。从不同维度看,数字经济对农业韧性的重构创新能力影响最大、基础抵御能力次之、适应调整能力最小。从赋能机制看,数字经济通过促进农村产业融合和农业产业集聚,提升生产效率与品质,延长产业链;在农业经营主体层面,数字经济通过提升农民数字素养,为农业可持续发展提供保障,从而增强农业韧性。第四,数字经济对农业韧性的赋能效果具有显著的门槛特征,随着数字经济发展水平的提高,对农业韧性的赋能效果逐渐增强。数字经济结构的异质性表明,产业数字化对农业韧性的影响最大,数字产业化的影响次之,数字化基础影响最小。异质性分析发现,数字经济对农业韧性的赋能效应存在中、东、西部递减的趋势,且相较于非粮食主产区、城镇化率较低的地区、以及人力资本较低的地区,数字经济对粮食主产区、城镇化率较高的地区以及人力资本较高的地区农业韧性的赋能效应更大。基于以上结论,提出加快推进产业数字化、优化数字基础设施建设、提升农民数字素养与技能、实施差异化政策,推动区域协调发展的政策建议,以期能够有效提升农业韧性水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural resilience is an intrinsic requirement for ensuring food security and promoting sustainable rural development.In the face of changes in the internal and external environment,such as the restructuring of the global value chain,the structural reform of the domestic agricultural supply side,the upgrading of the grain consumption structure and the quality of consumption,it is of great practical significance to effectively deal with the impact of uncertainties on all aspects of China’s agriculture and enhance the resilience of agriculture.With the acceleration of the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the digital economy,the digital economy has gradually become an important support for the growth of the national economy,and it has important theoretical and practical significance to ensure food security,improve agricultural resilience and achieve high-quality agricultural development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper constructs a comprehensive index measurement system of digital economy and agricultural resilience,and uses the entropy method,kernel density estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient to measure and analyze its development characteristics.On this basis,the panel double fixed effect model,quantile model,threshold effect model and other empirical tests of the enabling effect of digital economy on agricultural resilience,and the results show that:First,during the study period,the overall level of digital economy and agricultural resilience showed an upward trend.In terms of the digital economy,the digital foundation,digital industrialization and industrial digitalization have shown a trend of rapid development,among which industrial digitalization has the fastest growth rate and the highest overall development level.In terms of agricultural resilience,the adaptability and adjustment capacity of agricultural resilience is generally the highest,followed by the ability to reconstruct and innovate,and the basic resilience is the smallest.Second,during the study period,the resilience of the digital economy and agriculture showed different polarization phenomena,and the regional differences were significant,mainly due to the regional differences.There was a slight polarization in the early stage of the digital economy,which gradually weakened and disappeared with the development of its popularity.The polarization of agricultural resilience in the later stage is obvious,forming a "right peak" phenomenon,indicating that some regions have shown stronger resistance,adaptation and recovery ability in response to external shocks,and the resilience level is significantly better than that of other regions.Third,the digital economy can effectively empower agricultural resilience.From different dimensions,the digital economy has the greatest impact on the reconstruction and innovation ability of agricultural resilience,followed by the basic resilience and the least adaptation and adjustment ability.From the perspective of empowerment mechanism,the digital economy can improve production efficiency and quality and extend the industrial chain by promoting the integration of rural industries and the agglomeration of agricultural industries.At the level of agricultural operators,the digital economy can enhance the resilience of agriculture by improving farmers’ digital literacy and providing a guarantee for the sustainable development of agriculture.Fourth,the enabling effect of the digital economy on agricultural resilience has significant threshold characteristics,and with the improvement of the development level of the digital economy,the enabling effect on agricultural resilience gradually increases.The heterogeneity of the digital economy structure shows that industrial digitalization has the greatest impact on agricultural resilience,followed by digital industrialization,and the least impact on digital foundation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the enabling effect of digital economy on agricultural resilience has a decreasing trend in the central,eastern and western regions,and the enabling effect of digital economy on agricultural resilience in major food producing areas,areas with high urbanization rate and high human capital is greater than that in non-major food producing areas,areas with low urbanization rate,and regions with low human capital.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to accelerate industrial digitalization,optimize digital infrastructure construction,improve farmers’ digital literacy and skills,implement differentiated policies,and promote regional coordinated development,in order to effectively improve the level of agricultural resilience.更多还原