【作者】 郭珂；

【导师】 刘建华；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 工程管理硕士（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 数字技术与信息技术的飞速进步,极大地促进了农业领域的数字化转型。数字经济不仅推动了现代经济增长模式的转型,还依托数字技术催生了数字农业的快速发展。在追求“双碳”目标的过程中,数字经济的发展为农业碳减排开辟了新路径,成为实现农业减排目标的关键手段。农业在碳排放方面扮演着双重角色:既是主要的排放源,也是重要的碳汇。因此,在保障农产品稳定供应的同时,必须充分挖掘农业领域的固碳与减排潜力,以加速国家“双碳”目标的实现进程。黄河流域是我国重要的生态安全屏障,也是重要的农产品生产基地,把握黄河流域数字农业发展水平和农业碳排放现状,探究数字农业发展水平对黄河流域农业碳排放的作用机理,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先梳理了国内外数字农业发展水平和农业碳排放的相关研究,对其概念进行界定,阐述相关理论基础,据此提出数字农业发展水平影响农业碳排放的理论分析框架。其次,本文构建数字农业发展水平综合评价指标体系,以黄河流域2014-2023年地级市面板数据为样本,对黄河流域数字农业发展水平和农业碳排放进行测算,并深入探究数字农业发展水平和农业碳排放两者的时空演变特征。然后,通过中介效应模型、调节效应模型、面板门槛回归模型,探究数字农业发展水平对黄河流域农业碳排放的影响作用。最后,基于理论和实证分析结果,从推进农村技术设施建设、推动农业生产经营规模化、健全制度保障体系、因地制宜发展数字农业和加强农业碳源监管等方面提出相关的政策建议。通过理论分析和实证分析,结果表明:(1)从数字农业发展水平现状来看,研究期内黄河流域数字农业发展水平指数呈现持续增长态势,从2014年的0.204增加至2023年的0.381,年均增幅高达8.676%。但受疫情冲击的影响2020-2023年间黄河流域数字农业发展水平增速放缓。从空间分布特征来看,总体呈现明显的“中间低,两边高”分布态势。(2)从农业碳排放现状来看,研究期内黄河流域农业碳排放均值虽有波动,但整体呈现下降态势,标准化的农业碳排放数值由最高2016年的0.601下降到2023年的0.463,年均降幅达到3.280%,但在2020-2023年间受疫情影响趋于稳定,与此同时,从空间分布来看,黄河流域农业碳排放量呈现“上游>中游>下游”的特征。(3)从基准回归来看,数字农业发展水平对黄河流域农业碳排放有显著的抑制作用。具体而言,黄河流域数字农业建设水平每提高1%,农业碳排放强度降低0.471个百分点。在控制变量中,区域发展水平以及技术创新水平对农业碳排放有负向影响,但农业种植面积、区域城乡差距对于农业碳排放具有正向影响。(4)从异质性分析来看,黄河流域中游数字农业对农业碳排放的抑制作用明显优于下游和上游,数字农业在农业碳排放的抑制方面释放的红利按照“中游-下游-上游”降序排列。(5)从中介效应、调节效应以及门槛效应来看,数字农业发展水平通过推动规模效应和城镇化水平来减少农业碳排放,规模效应和城镇化水平起到中介作用。政策支持具有调节作用。农业人力资本在数字农业发展水平影响黄河流域农业碳排放过程中发挥双重门槛效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid advancement of digital and information technologies has significantly accelerated the digital transformation of the agricultural sector.The digital economy has not only driven the transformation of modern economic growth models but also catalyzed the rapid development of digital agriculture through digital technologies.In the pursuit of the"dual carbon"goals,the development of the digital economy has opened new pathways for agricultural carbon emission reduction,emerging as a critical means to achieve agricultural emission reduction targets.Agriculture plays a dual role in carbon emissions:it is both a major emission source and an important carbon sink.Therefore,while ensuring stable agricultural product supply,it is imperative to fully exploit the carbon sequestration and emission reduction potential of the agricultural sector to accelerate the realization of national"dual carbon"goals.The Yellow River Basin,serving as a vital ecological security barrier and a significant agricultural production base in China,holds practical importance in understanding the current status of digital agriculture development and agricultural carbon emissions in the region,as well as exploring the mechanisms through which digital agriculture development influences agricultural carbon emissions.This study first reviews domestic and international research on digital agriculture development levels and agricultural carbon emissions,defines relevant concepts,elaborates theoretical foundations,and proposes a theoretical framework for how digital agriculture development affects agricultural carbon emissions.Second,a comprehensive evaluation index system for digital agriculture development is constructed.Using panel data from prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2014 to 2023,the levels of digital agriculture development and agricultural carbon emissions in the basin are measured,with an in-depth analysis of their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics.Subsequently,the mediating effect model,moderating effect model,and panel threshold regression model are employed to investigate the impact of digital agriculture development on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.Finally,based on theoretical and empirical analyses,policy recommendations are proposed,including advancing rural infrastructure construction,promoting large-scale agricultural production and operation,improving institutional safeguards,adapting digital agriculture development to local conditions,and strengthening agricultural carbon source supervision.Theoretical and empirical analyses yield the following results:(1)Digital Agriculture Development Status:During the study period,the digital agriculture development index in the Yellow River Basin exhibited continuous growth,rising from 0.204 in 2014 to 0.381 in 2023,with an average annual increase of 8.676%.However,growth slowed between 2020 and 2023 due to pandemic impacts.Spatially,the distribution displayed a distinct"low in the central region,high in peripheral areas"pattern.(2)Agricultural Carbon Emission Status:The average agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin fluctuated but generally declined during the study period.Standardized agricultural carbon emissions decreased from a peak of0.601 in 2016 to 0.463 in 2023,with an average annual reduction of 3.280%.Emissions stabilized between 2020 and 2023 under pandemic conditions.Spatially,agricultural carbon emissions followed a"upper>middle>lower reaches"gradient.(3)Baseline Regression:Digital agriculture development significantly inhibits agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.Specifically,a 1%increase in digital agriculture development reduces agricultural carbon emission intensity by0.471 percentage points.Among control variables,regional development level and technological innovation negatively affect agricultural carbon emissions,while agricultural planting area and regional urban-rural disparity exhibit positive effects.(4)Heterogeneity Analysis:The inhibitory effect of digital agriculture on carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin outperforms that of the upper and lower reaches.The emission reduction benefits follow a descending order of"middle-lower-upper reaches."(5)Mechanistic Insights:Digital agriculture development reduces agricultural carbon emissions by promoting scale effects and urbanization,with both factors acting as mediators.Policy support plays a moderating role.Agricultural human capital exhibits a dual threshold effect in the process of digital agriculture development influencing agricultural carbon emissions.更多还原