【作者】 王晶；

【导师】 杨琳；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古大学 ， 应用经济学， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 在“双碳”目标下,随着我国电力系统从传统能源向新能源转变,相应的社会福利也会随之发生改变,具体表现在与经济福利相关的生产者剩余、消费者剩余以及政府支出,就业福利和环境福利,同时也会影响电力系统的安全性。碳捕集利用与封存技术(CCUS)的使用如何影响电力系统转型的社会福利,又如何影响我国煤电退役进程,值得探讨。首先,本文围绕能源安全以及“双碳”目标,设计了煤电提前退役不配备CCUS技术、煤电居中退役配备煤电CCUS技术以及生物质能碳捕集与封存技术(BECCS)、煤电缓慢退役配备煤电CCUS技术和气电CCUS技术的三种不同发电技术组合情景。其次,通过垄断公共管制福利模型以及目标优化模型,结合我国电力市场的政策机制,评估了电力系统转型的总经济福利。通过就业因素法以及学习曲线模型,探索电力系统转型的就业福利以及煤电行业失业福利损失。通过环境学习曲线模型,评估了不同发电技术组合的外部成本。最后,通过不同情景的对比,探索CCUS技术对电力系统转型的社会福利影响。结果表明,煤电缓慢退役情景,从2021年到2060年,累计经济福利为1882百亿元,优于居中退役情景下的1787百亿元以及提前退役情景下的1700百亿元。同时,此情景煤电行业共损失就业福利1.4百亿元少于快速退役情景下的1.58百亿元以及居中退役情景下的1.63百亿元,为煤电工人提供了更多的就业缓冲期。但是,此情景的累计外部成本为403百亿元,高于居中退役情景下的342百亿元和提前退役情景下的270百亿元。总之,煤电缓慢退役加装CCUS技术,虽然环境福利不如其他情景,但总经济福利最优,同时减少了煤电行业失业损失,总社会福利为1853百亿元,优于居中退役情景1834百亿元和快速退役情景1829百亿元。政策制定者应在综合考虑经济-就业-环境福利以及电力系统安全性,提前规划部署CCUS技术、BECCS技术,合理规划煤电退役进程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the double-carbon goal,as China’s the power system gradually transforms from traditional energy to new energy,the corresponding social welfare will also change,including producer surplus,consumer surplus,and government expenditure related to the economic welfare,social welfare and environmental welfare,as well as affecting the security of the power system.It is worth exploring how Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology affects the social welfare of the power system transition,and how it affects the process of decommissioning coal power in China.Firstly,this study designs three different power generation technology combination scenarios centered on energy security and "dual-carbon" goals,including early coal retirement without CCUS technology,mid-coal retirement with coal CCUS technology and biomass carbon capture and storage(BECCS)technology,slow coal retirement with coal CCUS technology and gas CCUS technology scenarios.Second,the total economic welfare of power system transformation was assessed through monopoly public regulation welfare model,and target optimization model,combined with the policy mechanisms of China’s electricity market.The employment welfare of power system transformation as well as loss of unemployment welfare in the coal power industry are explored through the employment factor approach as well as the learning curve model.The external costs of the different combinations of power generation technologies were assessed through the environmental learning curve model.Finally,the social welfare impacts of CCUS technologies on power system transformation are explored by comparing different scenarios.The results show that the slow coal retirement scenario,from 2021 to 2060,has a cumulative economic welfare of ￥18820 billion,which is better than the ￥17870 billion in mid-coal retirement scenario and ￥17000 billion in the early coal retirement scenario.At the same time,the total lost employment welfare to the coal industry in this scenario is ￥14 billion,which is less than the ￥15.8 billion in the early coal retirement scenario and the ￥16.3 billion in mid-coal retirement scenario,and provides more of a cushion of employment for coal workers.However,the cumulative external costs of this scenario are ￥4030 billion,higher than the ￥3420 billion in mid-coal retirement scenario and the ￥2700 billion in the early coal retirement scenario.In summary,the slow retirement of coal power with CCUS technology,while not as environmentally beneficial as the other scenarios,has optimal total economic welfare and reduces coalfired power unemployment losses,with a total social welfare of ￥18530 billion,which is better than mid-coal retirement scenario of $18340 billion and the early coal retirement scenario of $18290 billion.Policy makers should plan ahead for the deployment of CCUS and BECCS technologies and rationalize the coal power decommissioning process,taking into account the economic,employment and environmental welfare and power system security.更多还原