【作者】 张艳；

【导师】 李芳慧；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 税务， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的进一步发展,我国的收入差距也逐渐拉大,高收入群体所占有的财富逐渐增多。党的十八大以来,党中央把逐步实现全体人民共同富裕放在了更加重要的位置,党的十九届五中全会提出,在“十四五”时期,我们要着力提高低收入群体收入,扩大中等收入群体规模,到2035年实现“中等收入群体显著扩大”的目标。党的二十大报告也将实现全体人民共同富裕列为中国式现代化的本质要求之一。在2021年,我们实现了脱贫攻坚战的全面胜利,消除了绝对贫困,提高了部分低收入群体收入水平,这对实现共同富裕具有重要意义。在未来,我们仍需进一步提升低收入群体收入水平,扩大中等收入群体规模,以进一步调节收入分配差距。而个人所得税作为收入再分配的重要财政工具,通过免征额的设置以及对不同收入群体适用不同税率的方式,可以调节居民的税后收入水平,从而缓解贫富差距。近年来,我国的个人所得税经历了几次变革,但2018年个税改革规模最大,力度最强,此次税改不仅将免征额由3500元/月提高到了5000元/月,同时调整了税率级距,增加了子女教育、赡养老人等的专项附加扣除。已有文献指出,个体的劳动供给具有收入效应及替代效应,税收优惠提高了个体的税后收入,很可能会对个体的劳动供给产生刺激效应,从而使得个体又形成不同的收入分配格局,若税改能对中等收入群体产生更大的劳动供给效应,将会有利于缩减贫富差距。另外,随着我国出生率的下降,我国的劳动力人口也在逐渐下降。因此,为了评估2018年个税改革是否会对劳动供给产生影响,从而缓解收入分配格局以及缓解劳动力下降的现象,本文采用CFPS2016、2018以及2020年的数据,使用双重差分法评估此次税改对劳动供给的影响。在文章结构安排上,本文首先对国内外文献进行整理,并结合相关文献推导出个税改革影响劳动供给的理论模型。在这之后进行了总体分析,研究发现,税改会显著增加个体的劳动参与率,同时会提高在业群体的劳动时长,但提升的幅度较为有限。之后,本文按性别、年龄进行了异质性分析,发现此次税改对女性群体的劳动供给刺激更大,表现为替代效应大于收入效应,而年龄方面,44岁及以上的群体受到了显著的激励作用。另外,为了评估此次税改缓解收入分配差距的效果,本文还按收入状况进行了异质性分析,研究发现,税改显著提升了中等收入群体的劳动供给,但对高收入群体并未产生显著影响。为了进一步探究中等收入群体劳动供给受税改影响的路径,本文对中等收入群体按婚姻状况做进一步分析,研究发现已婚群体受到税改的激励程度较明显,从而使得中等收入群体有较强的劳动供给效应。而已婚群体是由于可以额外享受子女教育的专项附加扣除,从而表现出更强的劳动供给激励,这在进一步分析中也有所展示。在进行各种回归分析后,本文采用了安慰剂检验、断点回归、限制样本回归以及反事实检验验证了结论的稳健性。最后根据得出的结论,对税收政策提出了相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With further economic development in China,income inequality has been widening,and the wealth accumulated by high-income groups has been increasing.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the central leadership has placed greater importance on the goal of achieving common prosperity for all people.The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Party Central Committee has set a goal to significantly expand the middle-income group during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025)and achieve substantial growth of the middle-income group by2035.The report of the 20 th CPC National Congress also lists achieving common prosperity for all the people as one of the essential requirements of China’s modernization with Chinese characteristics.In 2021,we achieved a comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty,eradicating absolute poverty and improving the income levels of some low-income groups,which is of great significance for achieving common prosperity.In the future,we need to further increase the income level of lowincome groups and expand the size of the middle-income group to further adjust income distribution disparities.As an important fiscal tool for income redistribution,individual income tax can help mitigate wealth disparities by adjusting individuals’ after-tax income through the setting of exemption thresholds and different tax rates for different income groups.In recent years,China’s individual income tax has undergone several reforms,with the most significant and comprehensive reform taking place in2018.This reform not only raised the monthly exemption threshold from 3,500 yuan to 5,000 yuan but also adjusted the tax rate brackets and introduced additional deductions for child education and elderly support.Existing literature suggests that tax preferences increase individuals’ after-tax income,which is likely to stimulate labor supply and lead to different income distribution patterns.If the tax reform can generate greater labor supply effects among the middle-income group,it will contribute to reducing wealth disparities.Furthermore,with a decline in birth rates,China’s labor force is gradually shrinking.Therefore,to assess whether the 2018 tax reform has an impact on labor supply and can alleviate income distribution patterns and the decline in the labor force,this study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for 2016,2018,and 2020.The study employs a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impact of the tax reform on labor supply.The structure of the article begins with a review of domestic and international literature and derives a theoretical model of the impact of tax reform on labor supply based on the relevant literature.The study then conducts an overall analysis and finds that the tax reform significantly increases individuals’ labor force participation rates and increases the working hours of individuals in the employed group,but the magnitude of the increase is limited.Subsequently,the study conducts heterogeneity analysis by gender and age,revealing that the tax reform has a greater stimulating effect on female labor supply,characterized by a substitution effect greater than the income effect.In terms of age,individuals aged 44 and above experienced significant incentives for labor supply.Additionally,to evaluate the effect of the tax reform on alleviating income distribution disparities,the study conducts heterogeneity analysis by income group and finds that the tax reform significantly enhances labor supply among the middle-income group but has no significant impact on the high-income group.To further explore the pathway through which the tax reform affects labor supply among the middle-income group,the study conducts additional analysis by marital status and finds that the tax reform has a more pronounced incentive effect on the married group,leading to a strong labor supply effect among the middle-income group.The married group benefits from the additional deduction for child education,which further demonstrates the stronger labor supply incentives.After conducting various regression analyses,the study uses placebo tests,regression discontinuity,restricted sample regressions,and counterfactual tests to validate the robustness of the findings.Finally,based on the conclusions drawn,the study provides relevant policy recommendations for tax policies.更多还原