【作者】 李敬；

【导师】 孙梅；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学(北京) ， 会计硕士（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国“十四五”计划拉开帷幕,我国燃气行业进入疾速发展,社会资本的进入加速了并购进程,改革中势必会出现关于企业的价值评估。进入21世纪之后,我国燃气行业运营模式由政府、国有或集体经营并购重组,发展到独资、合资、合作多种形式蓬勃发展,再到目前形成了多种经济主体竞争的态势,贵州燃气是贵州省燃气类上市公司龙头,具有典型代表意义,对贵州燃气进行价值评估是很有必要的。本文以贵州燃气作为研究对象,通过PEST法和生命周期法对我国宏观环境进行梳理,着重关注我国经济环境以及天然气能源政策对燃气行业的影响,在此基础上结合企业价值评估方法局限性及适用范围选取了收益法、实物期权法和市场法对贵州燃气进行价值评估,对我国燃气行业企业估值提供了一定借鉴。结果表明,利用收益法和实物期权法,贵州燃气企业价值略被低估,比实际收盘价高1.22%和5.01%,而市场法下采用市盈率、市净率和市销率不同方法估值结果不同;因此收益法和实物期权法在燃气企业估值中更具适用性,市场法在选择价值比率时应综合考虑,其中市盈率更适用于燃气企业;通过敏感性分析发现,营业成本占比、折现率和资本性支出对估值结果的影响最强,永续增长率以及营业收入增长率的影响相对较弱。据此,本文认为燃气类企业估值可选取收益法和实物期权法;贵州燃气管理者应关注营业成本这一敏感性因素变动,严控成本,同时降低资产负债率,减少资本性支出;投资者应该认识到燃气行业市场尚未成熟,根据不同公司运营模式的选取不同评估模型和影响因素进行价值评估,同时时刻关注大环境及突发事件对行业的影响,综合考量后进行投资。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the opening of the 14th five-year Plan,China’s gas industry has entered a stage of development,and the entry of social capital has accelerated the process of merger and acquisition.The reform is bound to involve the value assessment of enterprises.China’s gas industry operation mode by the government,the state-owned and collective management of merger,acquisition and reorganization,to flourish,sole proprietorship,joint venture and cooperation in various forms to the formation of the m&a acceleration,a variety of economic main body competition situation,Guizhou natural gas as the Guizhou province’s largest listed company,has typical significance,for evaluation of gas in Guizhou is very be necessary.Based on Guizhou gas company as the research object,this paper selected the PEST method to analyze the macro environment and the life cycle,and focus on our country economy environment and the natural gas energy policy influence on gas industry,on the basis of combining with limits and the selection scope of the enterprise value evaluation method returns,options and market method in Guizhou gas value assessment.The results show that China’s gas industry has a good market prospect.Guizhou Gas has a large number of strategic assets,strong competitiveness in the industry,the enterprise value is undervalued;Among the sensitive factors of enterprise value,operating cost ratio and period expenses have the strongest influence,while the effect of sustainable growth rate and operating income growth rate is relatively weak.Accordingly,this paper believes that investors should pay attention to the changes of sensitivity factors and make investment after comprehensive consideration.Guizhou gas managers should strictly control costs,appropriately reduce the asset-liability ratio and maintain a large capital input in the next few years;China’s gas industry companies should select different evaluation models and influencing factors according to their different operating modes,and pay close attention to the impact of the overall environment and emergencies on the industry.更多还原