【作者】 李毅；

【导师】 王青娥； 蔡海蛟；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木水利（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 铁路工程规模庞大、复杂性强,面临着工程目标实现困难、技术体系极其复杂、环境不确定性强等严峻挑战,亟需通过技术创新来化解铁路工程建设难题。在技术创新过程中技术开发难度大、创新主体构成复杂等问题给技术创新带来了很大的风险。目前针对铁路工程技术创新风险的研究较少,尤其缺乏针对技术创新风险分配的研究。因此,有必要研究如何合理分配技术创新风险,以明确风险承担主体的责任归属,更好地调动各创新主体的参与积极性,确保技术创新目标的顺利实现,从而解决铁路工程建设难题,实现工程建设目标。鉴于此,本文在识别铁路工程技术创新风险及其承担主体的基础上,提出了铁路工程技术创新风险的分配方法。首先界定铁路工程技术创新与风险分配的相关概念,阐述多目标决策理论与合作博弈理论;其次通过文献研究以及案例分析识别铁路工程技术创新风险,经过专家筛选与补充辨识关键风险,总结风险分配原则及其影响因素并以此建立风险承担适宜性评价指标体系;然后剖析GRA-TOPSIS和Shapley值法的适用性,并构建风险分配模型来明确不同风险最适宜的承担主体以及风险在各主体间的分配比例;最后选取典型案例进行分析,识别出关键风险及其承担主体,明确风险在各主体之间的分配比例,验证本文所构建的风险分配模型的可行性和有效性,并在风险分配结果的基础上从主要责任方的角度提出相应的风险管理建议。本文弥补了铁路工程技术创新风险分配方法研究的不足,所提出的风险分配方法能够实现对铁路工程技术创新风险的合理分配,可以为铁路工程技术创新风险的分配与管理提供参考。图6幅,表39个,参考文献138篇更多还原

【Abstract】 Railway engineering is large and complex and faces severe challenges such as difficulties in achieving engineering objectives,extremely complex technological systems,and strong environmental uncertainty.Therefore,there is an urgent need to resolve the challenges in railway engineering construction through technological innovation.However,issues such as the difficulty of technological development and the complexity of the composition of innovative entities during the technological innovation process bring significant risk to technological innovation.Currently,there is limited research on the risk of technological innovation in railway engineering,especially the research on the allocation of technological innovation risk.Therefore,it is necessary to study how to reasonably allocate the risk of technological innovation,to clarify the attribution of the responsibility of the main risk-taking entities,better mobilise the enthusiasm of the participation of the main innovation entities,and ensure the smooth realisation of the technological innovation goals,solve the problems of railway engineering and construction,achieve the goals of engineering and construction.In view of this,this thesis proposed a method for allocating risk associated with railway engineering technological innovation based on the identification and analysis of the risk and the bearers.Firstly,it defined the relevant concepts of technological innovation and risk allocation in railway engineering and elaborated the theories of multi-objective decision-making and cooperative game theory.Secondly,it identified the risk of technological innovation in railway engineering through literature research and case analysis,identified the key risk of technological innovation through expert screening and supplementation,and established an evaluation index system for the risk-taking suitability on the basis of summarising the principles of risk allocation and its influencing factors.Then,it analyzed the applicability of GRA-TOPSIS and Shapley value methods and constructed a risk allocation model to clarify the most suitable risk-taking entities for different risk and the allocation ratio of risk among various entities.Finally,a typical case was selected for analysis to identify key risks and their bearers,to clarify the allocation ratio of risks among the subjects,to verify the feasibility and validity of the risk allocation model constructed in this thesis,and to put forward corresponding risk management suggestions from the perspective of the main responsible parties on the basis of the risk allocation results.This thesis filled the gap in the research on the allocation method of technological innovation risk in railway engineering.The proposed risk allocation method could achieve the reasonable allocation of technological innovation risk in railway engineering,providing reference for the allocation and management of technological innovation risk in railway engineering.更多还原