【作者】 王博；

【导师】 王文渊；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 过去十年间,我国港口吞吐量呈现逐年增加的趋势。如今,在加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局和“交通强国”的战略指引下,未来我国港口运输行业仍会稳步发展,港口吞吐量仍将保持逐年增加的趋势,这将导致港区内航行的船舶的数量不断增加。并且随着近年来船舶的吨位也呈现增大的趋势,临近港区的水域内的船舶交通量和船舶通航环境也逐渐变得更加复杂。复杂水域是指在多个港区相邻时,邻近港区的水域中包含天然航道、人工航道,又可能存在定线制水域、习惯航路等,这些通航水域彼此交汇且船舶交通流复杂的水域。复杂水域还具有船舶流量大和船舶航迹段交叉重叠的特点。复杂水域内船舶航行环境复杂,具有更大的船舶碰撞风险。因此,为复杂水域内船舶碰撞风险分析提供有效的评价方法,是港口安全运营研究的重要问题之一。本研究面向复杂水域内的船舶航行特点,提出了基于AIS数据,客观、定量地解析船舶在水域内的航行状态,构建复杂水域内船舶碰撞风险的评价指标体系和评价方法。首先,剖析影响复杂水域内船舶安全航行的因素,构建了相应的评价指标体系。其次,完成AIS数据的预处理,并且基于预处理后的AIS数据分别完成各个评价指标的建模和评价值定量计算。然后,构建了基于Choquet模糊积分的复杂水域内船舶碰撞风险的评价模型,综合考虑了各个评价指标之间的影响,采用教与学算法对各项评价指标及指标幂子集的模糊测度进行优化求解,并根据各指标初始值无量纲化后的评价值和模糊测度完成Choquet模糊积分的计算。最后,以我国某港区附近的复杂水域为算例,应用本研究中提出的评价指标体系和评价方法,对船舶碰撞风险进行评价分析。针对评价结果以及细化指标进行了详细的分析论述,对算例中复杂水域内航行的船舶的安全管理工作以及基础建设的升级改造提出了相应的建议和改善措施,以降低复杂水域内船舶的碰撞风险,保障船舶工作人员的安全和保证港口的安全有效运营。本研究构建的复杂水域内船舶碰撞风险的评价指标体系和评价方法,可为港口安全运营管理工作和港口基础建设的改造升级提供理论基础和技术参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of rapid economic development in China,international trade continues to increase,leading to an increasing trend in port throughput year by year.Due to the continuous increase in the number of ships and the increasing trend of ship tonnage,the traffic volume and navigation environment of ships in port waters have gradually become more complex.Complex waterway systems are important component of port water bodies,which refers to a body of water containing natural waterways,artificial waterways,and designated waterways that intersect with each other.Complex waterway systems also have the characteristics of high ship flow and overlapping ship tracks.The navigation environment of ships in complex waterway systems is complex,and there is a greater risk of ship collision.Therefore,providing effective evaluation methods for ship collision risk analysis in complex waterway system is one of the important issues in port safety operation research.This study focuses on the risk of ship collision in complex waterway systems and proposes an evaluation index system and evaluation method for the risk of ship collision in complex water areas.Firstly,analyzing the factors that affect the safe navigation of ships in complex waterway systems,a corresponding evaluation index system is constructed.Secondly,based on AIS data,preprocessing of AIS data is completed,and modeling of various evaluation indicators and quantitative calculation of evaluation values are completed based on the preprocessed AIS data.Thirdly,an evaluation model for ship collision risk in complex waterway systems based on Choquet fuzzy integral is constructed,taking the influence of various evaluation indicators into consideration.Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization Algorithms is used to optimize the fuzzy measures of various evaluation indicators and power subsets of indicators,and the calculation of Choquet fuzzy integral is completed based on the dimensionless evaluation values and fuzzy measures of the initial values of each indicator.Finally,taking a complex waterway system in a certain port area in China as a case study,the evaluation index system and evaluation method proposed in this study is applied to evaluate and analyze the risk of ship collision.A detailed systematic analysis is conducted on the evaluation results and refined indicators.Corresponding suggestions and improvement measures are proposed for the safety management of ships sailing in complex waterway systems and the upgrading and renovation of infrastructure in the case,in order to reduce the risk of collision between ships in complex waterway systems,ensure the personal and property safety of ship personnel,and ensure the safe and effective operation of the port.The evaluation index system and evaluation method for ship collision risk in complex waterway systems constructed in this study can provide theoretical basis and technical reference for port safety operation management and upgrading of port infrastructure.更多还原