【作者】 张晶晶；

【导师】 邵红岭； 路剑； 陈颖丽；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农业硕士（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是经济发展的基础产业,是立国之本,强国之基,其重要地位和重要作用不言而喻。在改革开放初期,为了带动经济快速增长,农业是以资源消耗和环境污染为代价的粗放型发展模式。现阶段这种模式已经不符合高质量绿色发展要求,农业作为生态文明建设的重点产业,应当由传统转向现代、由污染转向绿色、由低品质转向高质量,从而推进“环境友好型、资源节约型”农业生产体系建设。河北省作为粮食主产区也面临资源短缺和环境恶化的困境,后续如何实现农业绿色高质量发展是摆在面前的一道难题,对河北省农业绿色全要素生产率进行研究来探索破解之法,对河北省乃至全国的农业绿色可持续发展都具有重要意义。本文在梳理相关文献基础上,对河北省十一个市2001年-2021年的农业绿色全要素生产率的测算及影响因素进行研究。首先以“经济发展-资源约束-环境保护”为主要思路,对河北省绿色农业现状进行深入剖析,并对农业碳排放进行测算。其次,将测算的农业碳排放量作为非期望产出,农业产值作为期望产出,土地、劳动力、农药、化肥、机械、灌溉和农膜作为投入指标。用MAXDEA8.0软件的超效率SBM-Malmquist–Luenberger指数模型测算出河北省AGTFP及其构成项,并探索时间和空间的差异性,分析与传统农业全要素生产率之间的差别。最后选用经济发展水平、农业机械化水平、农业产业结构、农户经营规模、城镇化发展程度、工业化程度这六个自变量结合随机效应Tobit模型分析其影响机理。得出如下结论:(1)河北省绿色农业稳定发展,农业产值持续增长;农业碳排放量变化呈现先增后降趋势,总量仍然较高;2017年以后各种农业投入品使用量有所降低,但其使用强度依然居高不下;目前更为严峻的问题在于耕地面积持续减少,劳动力严重缩减,水资源持续紧张。(2)关于河北省AGTFP的测算分析,在动态层面2001年-2021年年均增长率为17.01%,但整体增长不稳定,其中技术进步是主要驱动力,技术效率对农业绿色全要素生产率主要起抑制作用;在静态层面,农业绿色全要素生产率均大于1,但地区之间存在较大差异,冀北地区高于冀南地区,其中发展速度最快的为秦皇岛市(16.20%),最慢的为衡水市(5.89%),两者相差1.75倍,河北省内部发展不平稳。(3)农业机械化水平、农业产业结构、城镇化发展程度对农业绿色全要素生产率有显著的促进作用,而农户经营规模有明显的抑制作用,经济发展水平和工业化程度没有通过显著性检验,无明显影响。由此,本文提出加强农业碳排放治理,从源头减排控源;加快农业供给侧结构性改革,优化农业产业结构;提高农业机械化水平,发挥规模效应;稳定城镇化发展,提高农业产值;协调地区农业绿色发展,优化整体布局。本文创新之处在于:一是将研究视角聚焦在河北省,探讨省域多要素对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响,以此来丰富相关研究成果,并提出有针对性的对策建议。二是研究内容是以种植业为主的狭义农业,选用的指标在其他研究的基础上加入了农药和农膜,并将农业从业人数作为劳动力指标,更加贴近研究对象,进一步完善投入指标建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is the basic industry of economic development,the foundation of the country and the foundation of a strong country,and its important position and important role are self-evident.In the early stage of reform and opening up,in order to drive rapid economic growth,agriculture was an extensive development model at the cost of resource consumption and environmental pollution.At this stage,this model does not meet the requirements of high-quality green development.Agriculture,as a key industry in the construction of ecological civilization,should be transformed from traditional to modern,from pollution to green,from low quality to high quality,so as to promote the construction of "environment-friendly and resource-saving" agricultural production system.As a major grain producing area,Hebei Province is also facing the dilemma of resource shortage and environmental deterioration.How to achieve green and high-quality agricultural development in the future is a difficult problem in front of us.It is of great significance for the green and sustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province and even the whole country to study the green total factor productivity of agriculture in Hebei Province and explore solutions.Based on the review of relevant literature,this paper studies the measurement and influencing factors of agricultural green total factor productivity in 11 cities of Hebei Province from 2001 to 2021.First of all,taking "economic development-resource constraint-environmental protection" as the main idea,the current situation of Hebei Province was deeply analyzed,and the agricultural carbon emission was calculated.Secondly,measured agricultural carbon emissions are taken as non-expected output,agricultural output value as expected output,and land,labor,pesticides,fertilizers,machinery,irrigation and agricultural film as input indicators.Using the super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist-Luenberger index model of MAXDEA8.0 software,the AGTFP and its components in Hebei Province were calculated,and the difference between the time and space was explored,and the difference between the AGTFP and the traditional productivity was analyzed.Finally,six independent variables,namely economic development level,agricultural mechanization level,agricultural industrial structure,farmer’s scale of operation,urbanization development degree and industrialization degree,were selected to analyze the influence mechanism combined with random effects Tobit model.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)Steady development of green agriculture in Hebei Province,and continuous growth of agricultural output value;The change of agricultural carbon emissions showed a trend of first increase and then decrease,and the total amount was still high.After 2017,the use of various agricultural inputs decreased,but the intensity of use remained high.At present,the more serious problem is that the arable land continues to decrease,the labor force is severely reduced,and the water resources continue to be strained.(2)As for the calculation and analysis of AGTFP in Hebei Province,the average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2021 is 17.01% at the dynamic level,but the overall growth is unstable,in which technological progress is the main driving force,and technical efficiency mainly restraines productivity;At the static level,the agricultural green total factor productivity is greater than 1,but there is a big difference between regions,the northern Hebei region is higher than the southern Hebei region,among which the fastest development rate is Qinhuangdao city(16.20%),the slowest is Hengshui City(5.89%),the difference between the two is 1.75 times,Hebei Province internal development is not stable.(3)The level of agricultural mechanization,the structure of agricultural industry,and the degree of urbanization development have a significant promoting effect on agricultural green total factor productivity,while the scale of peasant household operation has a significant inhibiting effect.The level of economic development and the degree of industrialization have no significant impact without passing the significance test.Therefore,this paper proposes to strengthen the management of agricultural carbon emissions,and reduce emissions from the source and control the source;Accelerate the structural reform of agricultural supply side and optimize the agricultural industrial structure;Improve the level of agricultural mechanization,give play to the scale effect;Stabilize urbanization development and increase agricultural output value;We will coordinate the green development of regional agriculture and optimize its overall layout.The innovations of this paper are as follows:The first is to focus the research perspective on Hebei Province,explore the impact of provincial multi-factor on agricultural green total factor productivity,in order to enrich relevant research results,and put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions.Second,the research content is the narrow agriculture based on planting industry.The selected index adds pesticides and agricultural film on the basis of other studies,and takes the number of agricultural employees as the labor force index,which is closer to the research object and further improves the construction of investment index.更多还原