【作者】 徐丹；

【导师】 王维安； 周恩源；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国地方政府的债务规模不断扩张,风险逐渐积累,当前地方政府债务风险已成为防范化解风险工作的重点。截至2022年12月末,我国地方政府债务余额总计达350618亿元,其中政府债券348995亿元,非政府债券形式的债务1623亿元,且地方政府的负债水平超过中央政府负债。同时当前我国金融部门、居民部门和非金融企业部门的债务规模也在快速扩张,总杠杆率高企。地方政府债务规模的持续扩大不仅会造成债务风险隐患,还会通过商业银行等金融机构、房地产市场等路径对区域内的金融稳定性产生严重影响。基于上述背景,本文系统回顾和整理了国内外地方政府债务领域的研究成果,明确了地方政府债务研究的方向,并梳理了与金融风险和杠杆率相关的研究。随后回顾了我国地方政府债务发展历程,分析现阶段地方政府债务的规模和结构,结合我国当前各部门宏观杠杆率的现状指出了当前地方政府债务扩张的问题,并通过理论和机制研究,总结了地方政府过度举债引发区域内金融风险积累的逻辑和路径。在实证部分,本文基于我国31省、市、自治区2006-2021年间的相关数据,使用熵值法构建了区域性金融风险指标,对区域性金融风险进行了测度,并利用中介效应面板模型和门槛效应面板模型,研究了地方政府债务、杠杆率和区域性金融风险之间的关系,得到以下结果:(1)地方政府债务的扩张对区域性金融风险的积累有促进作用,区域总杠杆率在地方政府债务对区域性金融风险的影响中存在不完全中介效应。(2)具体到不同部门,金融部门和居民部门的杠杆率存在中介效应,而非金融企业部门杠杆率则存在遮掩效应。(3)当区域总杠杆率较高时,地方政府债务对区域性金融风险的促进作用更强;区域总杠杆水平较低时,地方政府债务的扩张对区域内金融风险积累的促进作用相对较弱。基于本文理论和实证结果,对于地方政府债务和杠杆率的调控提出三点建议:一是优化地方政府债务水平,二是进一步推动结构性去杠杆,三是稳定金融部门和房地产市场。同时对于防范化解区域性金融风险提出三点建议:一是推动经济脱虚向实,二是防范财政风险和金融风险联动,三是加强对金融体系的监管。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,China’s local government debt scale continues to expand,the risk gradually accumulated,the current local government debt risk has become the focus of risk prevention and resolution work.By the end of December 2022,the balance of local government debt in China reached 3,50618 billion yuan,of which 3,489.95 billion yuan was government bonds and 162.3 billion yuan was non-government bonds,and the debt level of local governments exceeded that of the central government.At the same time,the debt scale of China’s financial sector,resident sector and non-financial enterprise sector is also expanding rapidly,and the total leverage ratio is high.The continuous expansion of local government debt scale will not only cause hidden risks of debt,but also have a serious impact on the financial stability of the region through commercial banks and other financial institutions,the real estate market and other paths.Based on the above background,this paper systematically reviews and collates the research results in the field of local government debt at home and abroad,clarifies the research direction of local government debt,and sorts out the research related to financial risk and leverage ratio.Then,it reviews the development history of local government debt in China,analyzes the scale and structure of local government debt at the present stage,points out the current problems of local government debt expansion combined with the current situation of macro leverage ratio of various departments in China,and summarizes the logic and path of the accumulation of regional financial risks caused by excessive local government debt through theoretical and mechanism research.In the empirical part,based on the relevant data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2006 to 2021,this paper uses the entropy method to construct regional financial risk indicators and measure regional financial risks.In addition,it uses the intermediary effect panel model and threshold effect panel model to study the relationship between local government debt,leverage ratio and regional financial risks.The results are as follows:(1)The expansion of local government debt promotes the accumulation of regional financial risks,and the regional total leverage ratio has an incomplete intermediary effect on the impact of local government debt on regional financial risks.(2)Specific to different sectors,the leverage ratio of the financial sector and the residential sector has an intermediary effect,while the leverage ratio of the non-financial enterprise sector has a masking effect.(3)When the regional total leverage ratio is higher,local government debt has a stronger role in promoting regional financial risks;When the regional total leverage level is low,the expansion of local government debt has a relatively weak role in promoting the accumulation of financial risks in the region.Based on the theoretical and empirical results of this paper,three suggestions are put forward for the regulation and control of local government debt and leverage ratio: first,optimize the level of local government debt,second,further promote structural deleveraging,and third,stabilize the financial sector and the real estate market.At the same time,three suggestions are put forward to prevent and resolve regional financial risks: first,promote the economy from virtual to real,second,prevent the linkage of fiscal risks and financial risks,and third,strengthen the supervision of the financial system.更多还原