【作者】 王伟；

【导师】 商克俭； 杨新胜；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 工程管理（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 为了缓解城市交通拥堵问题,大力发展地铁轨道交通已成为我国大中型城市地下空间开发的重点。盾构法因其适用于松软含水地层及施工条件复杂地段的特点,目前已成为地铁建设中运用广泛且高效的一种施工方法。但同时,盾构施工过程中面临着地质环境复杂,施工工艺繁琐等诸多问题,且由于长时间在隐蔽空间作业,存在诸多安全隐患,导致盾构法施工安全事故频发,这不仅使建设项目效益受损,也给人员安全带来了严重的威胁。青岛地铁X号线盾构区间在施工过程中需有效应对花岗岩、孤石及强风化地层等多重复杂地质环境,且施工所处区域地下水位较高,极易引发土壤液化、涌砂涌水等风险,这不仅影响项目的正常施工,甚至可能造成人员伤亡和财产损失,因此有必要对盾构施工过程中风险进行评价,以便为后续项目安全风险管控提供合理科学的依据。鉴于此,本文从施工单位的角度出发,探索适合青岛地铁X号线盾构施工的安全风险评价体系,旨在加强施工单位盾构施工的安全风险管理,提升风险防范的能力。首先,基于事故致因理论、事故统计法和文献研究等方法,构建了青岛地铁X号线盾构施工安全风险评价指标体系,然后运用SPSSAU软件进行词云分析,筛选出高频风险因素,并据此建立了初始风险清单。再通过德尔菲法结合专家的专业知识和丰富经验,最终确定了盾构始发前准备风险、盾构接收与竖井修建风险、盾构正常掘进风险、盾构抵达及退场风险、穿越特殊地段风险5个一级指标以及28个二级指标。其次,基于BN网络法、AHP-模糊综合评价法和风险矩阵构建了风险评价模型。利用GeNIe4.0软件,确定项目总体风险可能发生的概率P为56%。同时,运用AHP-模糊综合评价法,确定项目总体风险损失值C为51.44。结合改进ALARP的风险矩阵,计算得到青岛地铁X号线盾构施工安全风险总评为Ⅲ级,位于ALARP下限区,表明风险处于可接受区间内。最后,针对X号线盾构施工安全风险总评价的关键风险因素,提出切实可行的风险应对管理措施,旨在有效防控风险的发生。本文通过对青岛地铁X号线盾构施工安全风险进行评价研究,旨在为其实际施工过程中风险规避以及后续风险管理提供合理科学的依据,同时,也为青岛其他地铁线路后续施工提供参考。该论文有图36幅,表26个,参考文献86篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to alleviate the problem of urban traffic congestion,the development of metro rail transport has become the focus of underground space development in large and medium-sized cities in China.Shield method has become a widely used and efficient construction method in metro construction because it is suitable for soft water-bearing strata and complex construction conditions.At the same time,however,the shield construction process is faced with many problems such as complex geological environment,cumbersome construction process,etc.,and due to the long time in the hidden space operation,there are many safety hazards,resulting in the shield method of construction safety accidents,which not only makes the benefits of the construction project is damaged,but also to the safety of the personnel has brought a serious threat.Qingdao Metro Line X shield interval in the construction process need to effectively deal with multiple complex geological environments,such as granite,isolated rocks and strong weathering strata,and the construction of the area where the water table is high,it is very easy to cause soil liquefaction,gushing sand,gushing water,etc.,which not only affects the normal construction of the project,and may even cause casualties and property losses,so it is necessary to evaluate the risk of the shield construction process,in order to provide reasonable and scientific information for the follow-up of the project safety risk control.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the risk of shield construction process in order to provide a reasonable and scientific basis for the subsequent control of project safety risks.In view of this,this paper explores the safety risk evaluation system suitable for the shield construction of Qingdao Metro Line X from the perspective of the construction unit,aiming to strengthen the safety risk management of the shield construction of the construction unit,and improve the ability of risk prevention.Firstly,based on the accident causation theory,accident statistical method and literature research,the safety risk evaluation index system for shield construction of Qingdao Metro Line X was constructed,and then the word cloud analysis was carried out by using the SPSSAU software to screen out the high-frequency risk factors,and the initial risk list was established accordingly.Then through the Delphi method combined with experts’ professional knowledge and rich experience,five primary indicators and 28 secondary indicators were finally determined,including the risk of preparing for shield start,the risk of shield receiving and shaft construction,the risk of normal shield digging,the risk of shield arrival and exit,and the risk of crossing special sections.Secondly,a risk evaluation model was constructed based on the BN network method,AHPfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and risk matrix.Using GeNIe 4.0 software,the probability P that the overall risk of the project may occur was determined to be 56%.Meanwhile,using the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the overall risk loss value of the project C was determined to be 51.44.Combined with the risk matrix of the improved ALARP,the overall safety risk of the shield construction of Qingdao Metro Line X was calculated to be rated as Class III,which is located in the lower limit area of ALARP,indicating that the risk is within the acceptable interval.Finally,the key risk factors for the total evaluation of the safety risk of shield construction of Line X are put forward as practical risk management measures,aiming at the effective prevention and control of risk occurrence.This paper evaluates the safety risk of shield construction of Qingdao Metro Line X,aiming to provide a reasonable and scientific basis for risk avoidance and subsequent risk management in the actual construction process,and at the same time,provide a reference for the subsequent construction of other metro lines in Qingdao.This paper has 36 figures,26 tables,and 86 references.更多还原