【作者】 王蕊；

【导师】 张皞；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 国际商务（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,中国新能源汽车在海外市场的发展已经取得积极成效,出口规模持续扩大,成为汽车产业转型升级和技术革新的重要推动力。然而,目前中国新能源汽车在关键核心技术领域与发达国家尚存差距,具体体现在里程续航力、充电效率和安全性等方面,此外,对于汽车电动化、智能化和网联化领域的研究尚需深入。尽管中国新能源汽车“走出去”符合各国积极推动绿色转型的需要,并且能够有效填补其它国家的供求缺口,但在这一过程中,技术创新尤为重要。它既带来了机遇,也伴随着挑战。为了实现新能源汽车产业关键核心技术的自主可控,必须加强技术研发领域的突破和创新应用,以提升产品的竞争力。这不仅对加速推动中国新能源汽车海外市场布局至关重要,更是促进出口增长的关键所在。因此,中国应以技术创新为核心,不断提升新能源汽车的品质和性能,以赢得更广阔的国际市场。首先,本文对国内外学者在新能源汽车产业领域的相关研究成果进行了梳理和总结,通过查阅技术创新和出口贸易的经典理论,建立了技术创新对中国新能源汽车出口的理论影响机制;其次,总结并分析中国新能源汽车的出口以及技术创新现状;再次,以2017年1月至2023年8月中国新能源汽车出口额为被解释变量,新能源汽车技术专利申请量为核心解释变量,控制变量选取新能源汽车出口价格、人民币实际有效汇率、国际石油价格等,采用时间序列协整检验和误差修正模型,从长期和短期两方面实证分析技术创新对中国新能源汽车出口贸易的影响,并依据中国新能源汽车出口历史数据预测未来出口值;最后,根据研究结论对中国新能源汽车出口拓展海外市场提供相应建议。根据研究结果,本文得出以下结论:第一,技术创新对中国新能源汽车的出口存在显著的促进作用,且与短期内的影响效果相比,长期影响下作用更明显;第二,新能源汽车出口平均价格、人民币实际有效汇率对其出口带来显著的负面影响,国际石油价格和补贴退坡政策在统计意义上没有表现出显著性,说明对其出口可能不发挥重要作用;第三,技术创新对中国新能源汽车出口的影响存在异质性,主要表现在技术和车型上,其中电池技术对其出口作用最大,其次为电驱、电控技术。车型出口中技术创新对插电式混合动力汽车影响略优于纯电动汽车。第四,通过ARIMA模型预测,中国新能源汽车的出口量逐年增长,不仅反映了中国新能源汽车产业强劲的发展势头,也预示着未来海外市场对中国新能源汽车的需求将持续增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,China’s new energy vehicles(NEVs)have made significant strides in overseas markets,with exports steadily increasing.They have become a crucial driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry and technological innovation.However,there still exist gaps between China’s NEVs and developed countries in key core technology areas,notably in terms of mileage range,charging efficiency,and safety.Additionally,further research is needed in the fields of vehicle electrification,intelligence,and connectivity.While China’s expansion of NEVs abroad meets the needs of countries striving for green transformation and effectively fills supply-demand gaps,technological innovation remains paramount throughout this process.It presents both opportunities and challenges.To achieve independent and controllable core technologies in the NEV industry,there must be a focus on breakthroughs and innovative applications in technology research and development,enhancing product competitiveness.This is not only crucial for accelerating the overseas market layout of Chinese NEVs but also pivotal for driving export growth.Therefore,China should prioritize technological innovation,continually improving the quality and performance of NEVs to capture a broader international market.Initially,this thesis reviews and summarizes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in the NEV industry.It establishes the theoretical impact mechanism of technological innovation on China’s NEV exports by consulting classic theories of technological innovation and export trade.The study begins by reviewing and summarizing research findings from domestic and international scholars in the field of new energy vehicles(NEVs).Drawing upon classic theories of technological innovation and export trade,it establishes the theoretical framework for understanding the impact of technological innovation on China’s NEV exports.Subsequently,it analyzes China’s NEV exports and technological innovation,focusing on the period from January 2017 to August 2023.Utilizing a time-series cointegration test and error correction model,it empirically examines the influence of technological innovation on China’s NEV export trade from both short-term and long-term perspectives.Control variables,including NEV export prices,the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan,and international oil prices,are considered.Based on historical NEV export data,future export values are forecasted.Finally,the study provides corresponding recommendations for expanding China’s NEV exports to overseas markets based on its research conclusions.According to the research results,this thesis draws the following conclusions: Firstly,technological innovation significantly promotes China’s NEV exports,with a more pronounced effect in the long term compared to the short term.Secondly,the average export price of NEVs and the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan have a significant negative impact on exports,while international oil prices and subsidy reduction policies do not show statistical significance,indicating they may not play a crucial role.Thirdly,the impact of technological innovation on China’s NEV exports exhibits heterogeneity,mainly in technology and vehicle types,with battery technology having the most significant export impact,followed by electric drive and control technology.Among vehicle types,technological innovation has a slightly better impact on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than pure electric vehicles.Fourthly,using the ARIMA model for prediction,China’s NEV exports are expected to increase year by year,reflecting not only the strong momentum of China’s NEV industry but also indicating a continuous growth in demand for Chinese NEVs in overseas markets.更多还原