以能量计量计价为基础的天然气定价模型研究

【作者】 李爽；

【导师】 吴晓南；

【作者基本信息】 西南石油大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 《油气管网设施公平开放监管办法》中指出,天然气在交易时应当对发热量、体积等进行科学计量,建立天然气能量计量计价体系。为探求天然气价格市场化和天然气能量计量计价的可行策略,本文对天然气能量计量计价体系进行分析,提出了天然气计价的两种方案,构建了天然气定价博弈模型。为研究天然气能量价格变动的影响,建立了传导效应分析模型,同时构建了 VAR预测模型对天然气能量价格进行预测分析。本文主要开展了如下工作:(1)提出了计及发热量的天然气体积计价、基于能量计量计价的天然气能量计价两种天然气计价方案。(2)建立了计及发热量的天然气定价博弈模型,将天然气发热量作为状态变量引入天然气价格公式,构建天然气定价博弈模型并采用逆向归纳法进行求解,确定天然气市场各主体最优定价公式。以四川省成都市天然气市场为例,分析了在计及天然气发热量的定价方式下,天然气生产商和燃气公司的销售价格、利润以及天然气需求量的变化情况。研究结果表明,天然气发热量从36.6MJ/m3到44MJ/m3天然气生产商利润增加了 25.39%,天然气发热量从35.6MJ/m3到44MJ/m3燃气公司利润增加了 30.41%,同时天然气市场需求量增长率为21.97%。(3)建立了基于能量计量计价的天然气定价博弈模型,以天然气生产商和燃气公司利润最大以及燃气用户购气费用最小为目标,基于改进蚁群算法确定天然气市场各主体最优定价。以四川省成都市天然气市场为例分析了天然气生产商和燃气公司的销售价格、利润以及天然气需求量的变化情况。天然气单位体积发热量越高,燃气用户的购气费用越低。天然气发热量从34 MJ/m3增加到42 MJ/m3,燃气用户购买价格降低了 10.37元/GJ,天然气生产商利润增加了 5.51亿元,燃气公司利润增加了 1.4亿元,同时天然气销售量增加了 3.03×1 08GJ,增长率为1 8.29%。两种定价方案对比发现,方案二中天然气生产商制定的价格更加合理并且天然气生产商可以获得更高的利润,故方案二优于方案一。(4)建立了天然气能量价格传导效应分析模型,分析了电价、其他替代能源价格和物价水平在受到天然气能量价格一个标准差冲击时所做出的响应。研究结果表明,其他替代能源价格受到天然气能量价格冲击波动的幅度较大,其正向峰值为2.9。物价水平在受到天然气能量价格一个标准差的冲击时所做出的响应,在第六期达到正向峰值0.3。电价受天然气能量价格一个标准差的冲击时所做出的响应,在第十四期达到正向峰值0.1。(5)建立了天然气能量价格VAR预测模型,对天然气能量价格进行预测研究。所建立的预测模型的预测精度较高,对天然气市场能量价格的预测具有借鉴意义和参考价值。本文建立了计及发热量的天然气定价博弈模型和基于能量计量计价的天然气定价博弈模型,并分析了天然气能量价格变动的传导效应,可供天然气能量价格的实施提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Regulation on Fair and Open Access to Oil and Gas Pipeline Facilities states that natural gas should be scientifically measured in terms of heat and volume when traded,and that a natural gas energy metering and pricing system should be established.In order to explore a feasible strategy for the marketisation of natural gas prices and natural gas energy metering and pricing,this paper analyses the natural gas energy metering and pricing system,proposes two options for natural gas pricing,and constructs a natural gas pricing game model.In order to study the impact of natural gas energy price changes,a transmission effect analysis model is developed,and a VAR forecasting model is constructed to forecast natural gas energy prices.The main work carried out in this paper is as follows:(1)Two natural gas pricing schemes are proposed:volumetric natural gas pricing,which takes into account the amount of heat generated,and energy pricing,which is based on energy metering.(2)A game model for natural gas pricing,taking into account the amount of heat generated,is developed.The game model for natural gas pricing is constructed by introducing the amount of heat generated as a state variable into the natural gas price formula and solved by the inverse induction method to obtain the optimal pricing formula for each market player.The changes in sales prices and profits of natural gas producers and gas companies,as well as the changes in demand for natural gas after taking into account the heat content of natural gas,are analyzed in Chengdu,Sichuan Province.The results of the study show that the profits of gas producers increased by 25.39%from 36.6MJ/m3 to 44MJ/m3 and the profits of gas companies increased by 30.41%from 35.6MJ/m3 to 44MJ/m3,while the growth rate of gas market demand was 21.97%.(3)A game model for natural gas pricing based on energy metering pricing is developed,with the objective of maximizing the profits of natural gas producers and gas companies and minimizing the purchase costs of gas consumers,and an improved ant colony algorithm is used to obtain the optimal pricing for each market player.The variation of sales price,profit and gas demand of natural gas producers and gas companies is analyzed in the case of Chengdu,Sichuan Province.The higher the calorific value per unit volume of natural gas,the lower the purchase cost of gas users.The increase in natural gas calorific value from 34 MJ/m3 to 42 MJ/m3 reduces the purchase price of gas consumers by RMB10.37/GJ,increases the profit of natural gas producers by RMB551 million and that of gas companies by RMB140 million,while the volume of natural gas sold increases by 3.03 ×108 GJ,a growth rate of 18.29%.A comparison of the two pricing options shows that Option 2 is better than Option 1 because the price set by the gas producer is more reasonable and the gas producer can earn a higher profit.(4)A model was developed for analyzing the response of electricity prices,other alternative energy prices,and price levels to a one standard deviation shock in natural gas energy prices,using an analytical approach to the transmission effects of natural gas energy prices.The results of the study show that the price of other alternative energy sources fluctuates more with apositive peak of 2.9,while the response of the price level to a one standard deviation shock in the price of natural gas energy reaches a positive peak of 0.3 in period 6 and the response of the price of electricity to a one standard deviation shock in the price of natural gas energy reaches a positive peak of 0.1 in period 14.(5)A natural gas energy price VAR forecasting model was developed to forecast natural gas energy prices.The forecasting accuracy of the developed forecasting model is high,which is informative and useful for energy price forecasting in the natural gas market.A game model for natural gas pricing based on calorie counting and a game model for natural gas pricing based on energy metering is developed,and the transmission effects of changes in natural gas energy prices are analyzed,which can be used to inform the implementation of natural gas energy pricing.更多还原