【作者】 张颖；

【导师】 徐英杰； 刘庆富；

【作者基本信息】 济南大学 ， 会计（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 在2021年,我国正式提出了“双碳”目标,标志着作为我国基本国策之一的环境保护已经从单纯的环境保护向环境与经济共同循环的领域迈进,基于自然环境、社会环境和公司治理的ESG评价活动成为了公司向公众展示自身参与环境保护、对社会负责的重要途径之一。公司积极参与ESG评价后形成的良好的ESG表现不但能够带来公众对公司的认同,更能够使公司获得一定的经济收益,其中,对企业估值的提升正是其中表现之一。研究选择潍柴动力作为案例分析对象,采用了定性和定量相结合的研究方法,分析了公司ESG表现与企业估值之间的关系。研究完成了以下工作:第一,构建了研究的理论框架,从市场经营、公司治理、社会关系三个角度对公司ESG表现影响企业估值的机制进行了定性分析。其中,市场经营机制包括满足消费者对产品需求,增加和供应商的合作机会;公司治理机制包括倒逼企业管理者尽职勤勉、完善公司内部治理的方式、丰富员工的激励方式;社会关系管理机制包括了增强公众参与公司活动热情以及获得政府补贴。从定性角度看,公司ESG表现良好可以使公司的估值提升,也构成了研究的理论框架。第二,对研究案例的现状进行了系统的梳理。研究对潍柴动力的概况、发展进行了分析,引用华证研究报告分析了制造业整体的ESG表现,并对2022年潍柴动力的ESG现状进行了阐述。梳理过程中重点对包括保持市场先发优势、优化公司内部治理、顺应社会发展要求等三个潍柴动力引入ESG的动因进行了分析。第三,对潍柴动力的企业估值进行综合分析。结合理论框架三个层面采用了不同了指标分析了潍柴动力在引入ESG评价后估值有所上升的情况,采用了经济附加值EVA价值评价的方法,对潍柴动力的估值进行了计算,并对2023-2027年的企业估值进行了预测;以市盈率为指标,对潍柴动力的估值进行计算,预测在未来五年的时间内,以潍柴动力的市盈率七年期均值14.28计算,潍柴动力的股价应在14.98元至15.49元范围内。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2021,China officially proposed the "dual carbon" goal,marking that environmental protection,as one of China’s basic national policies,has moved from simple environmental protection to the field of environmental and economic co circulation.ESG evaluation activities based on natural environment,social environment,and corporate governance have become one of the important ways for companies to demonstrate their participation in environmental protection and social responsibility to the public.The positive ESG performance formed by the company’s active participation in ESG evaluation not only brings public recognition of the company,but also enables the company to obtain certain economic benefits,among which the improvement of company valuation is one of the manifestations.The study selected Weichai Power Co.,Ltd as the case study object and used a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to analyze the relationship between the company’s ESG performance and corporate valuation.The research has completed the following tasks:Firstly,a theoretical framework for the study was constructed,and a qualitative analysis was conducted on the mechanism by which a company’s ESG performance affects its valuation from three perspectives: market operation,corporate governance,and social relations.Among them,the market operation mechanism includes meeting consumer demand for products,increasing cooperation opportunities with suppliers;The corporate governance mechanism includes ways to force corporate managers to be diligent,improve internal governance,and enrich employee incentive methods;The social relationship management mechanism includes enhancing public participation in company activities and obtaining government subsidies.From a qualitative perspective,a good ESG performance of a company can lead to an increase in its valuation,which also forms the theoretical framework for research.Secondly,a systematic review was conducted on the current status of the research case.The study analyzed the overview and development of Weichai Power,cited the Huazheng research report to analyze the overall ESG performance of the manufacturing industry,and elaborated on the ESG status of Weichai Power in 2022.During the sorting process,the focus was on analyzing the three motivations for Weichai Power to introduce ESG,including maintaining market first mover advantage,optimizing internal governance of the company,and complying with social development requirements.Thirdly,conduct a comprehensive analysis of the valuation of Weichai Power Company.Combining three levels of theoretical framework,different indicators were used to analyze the increase in valuation of Weichai Power after the introduction of ESG evaluation.The method of economic value-added EVA value evaluation was used to calculate the absolute valuation of Weichai Power,and the company’s valuation from 2023 to 2027 was predicted;Using the P/E ratio as an indicator,the relative valuation of Weichai Power is calculated.It is predicted that in the next five years,based on the 7-year average P/E ratio of 14.28,the stock price of Weichai Power should be in the range of 14.98 yuan to 15.49 yuan.更多还原