【作者】 张莉；

【导师】 徐文芸；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 税务， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 在二十大报告中,习近平总书记强调“高质量发展是我们的第一要务”。作为实现经济高质量发展的关键环节之一,产业结构升级能够通过影响经济发展,助推我国实现高质量发展目标。1994年我国进行财政体制改革以来,地方政府在税收征管方面具有一定的自主权,各地方政府通过税收竞争等手段来吸引生产要素,直接影响经济资源的有效配置,从而对产业结构的优化升级产生影响。与此同时,中部地区作为中国经济版图的重要组成部分,在党的二十大报告中被赋予了“促进中部地区加快崛起”的重要任务,实现中部地区的高质量发展也成为推动我国经济现代化发展的必然要求。基于上述背景,本论文选取中部地区为研究对象,旨在探讨地方税收竞争对产业结构的影响。首先,在研究税收竞争对产业结构升级影响机制的基础上,分析中部地区税收竞争与产业结构的发展现状;并采用双向固定效应模型,通过研究中部地区80个地级市的面板数据来分析税收竞争对中部地区产业结构升级的影响,从而为中部地区的产业结构升级和高质量发展提供科学、合理的参考依据。通过深入剖析税收竞争与产业结构之间的内在联系,期望能为该地区实现经济社会的持续健康发展提供有益的启示。具体而言,本文分为以下六个部分。第一部分为绪论。在此部分中,首先介绍本文的研究背景,随后深入探讨该研究在理论层面与实践层面所具备的重要意义。同时还对国内外相关文献进行总结分析。此外,本文还详细阐述了研究内容及所采用的研究方法,并对研究中可能出现的创新点和不足之处进行了归纳与分析,旨在为后续研究提供有益的参考。第二部分主要对基础概念及相关理论进行说明。首先,界定了税收竞争与产业结构相关概念,为后续研究提供明确的理论基础。接着,深入探讨税收竞争与产业结构升级之间的基础理论关联,揭示二者之间的内在联系。最后,从整体角度出发,从宏观和微观的角度来探究税收竞争对产业结构的影响机制,为实证分析提供理论支撑。第三部分为现状分析。首先是对我国中部地区税收竞争形式进行分析。其次是对中部六省当前的税收竞争的水平进行研究。最后再研究当前中部地区的产业结构现状。第四部分聚焦于中部地区税收竞争对产业结构升级影响的实证分析。本文首先对固定效应模型的构建进行了详细阐述,其次,介绍了对于被解释变量、解释变量、控制变量等变量的选取与计算。接着,对中部地区80个地级市的数据进行回归分析。在此基础上,本文进一步对双向固定模型的回归结果进行了详尽的分析。为确保研究结果的可靠性,本文还进行了稳健性检验与异质性分析。第五章为结论与政策建议,基于上述分析结果,针对性地提出了相应的政策建议,旨在为中部地区的税收政策制定及产业结构的升级提供有益的参考。本文通过研究发现,第一,基准回归的结果显示,税收竞争对产业结构升级的影响系数为-0.0129,这一结果在1%的显著性水平下得到验证。具体而言,当中部地区的税收竞争提升1%时,产业结构升级指数会相应下降0.0129个单位。中部地区税收竞争水平的提升并不利于城市产业结构的升级,地方政府间的税收竞争对产业结构升级具有显著的负面效应。这说明中部地区的税收竞争水平已经对该地区的产业结构升级产生了抑制作用。第二,为了验证基准回归结果的稳健性和可靠性,本文采用了多种方法进行稳健性检验。具体而言,我们分别通过替换解释变量、替换被解释变量、将税收竞争滞后一期以及剔除省会城市等方式进行了检验。通过该检验验证了回归结果具有可靠性和稳定性。第三,异质性分析的结果显示,不同省份间税收竞争对产业结构升级的抑制作用存在显著差异。具体来说,江西省的税收竞争对产业结构升级的抑制作用最为显著。此外,相较于一般行政等级城市,高行政等级城市的税收竞争对产业结构升级的抑制作用较小。同时,市场化程度较高的地区,其税收竞争对产业结构优化的抑制作用也相对较小,相比之下,市场化程度较低的地区则呈现出较大的抑制作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 20 th National Congress report,General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that "high-quality development is our top priority." As one of the key links to achieve high-quality economic development,industrial structure upgrading can promote China’s goal of high-quality development by influencing economic growth.Since China’s fiscal system reform in 1994,local governments have had certain autonomy in tax collection and management.Through tax competition and other means,local governments attract production factors,directly influencing the effective allocation of economic resources and thus the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.Meanwhile,as an important component of China’s economic map,the central region has been assigned the crucial task of "accelerating the rise of the central region" in the report of the 20 th National Congress.Achieving high-quality development in the central region has also become an inevitable requirement for promoting China’s economic modernization.Against this backdrop,selecting the central region as the research object of this article to explore the impact of local tax competition on industrial structure.Firstly,based on the study of the impact mechanism of tax competition on the modernization of industrial structure,the current situation of tax competition and industrial structure in the central region was analyzed.Using a bidirectional fixed effects model and group data from 80 cities in the central region,the impact of tax competition on the modernization of industrial structure in the central region was analyzed,providing scientific and reasonable references for the upgrading and high-quality development of the industrial structure in the central region.Through a deep analysis of the inherent connection between tax competition and the industrial structure,it aims to provide useful insights for achieving sustained and healthy economic and social development in the region.Specifically,this thesis is divided into the following six parts.The first part introduction.Introducing the research background of this article,explore the theory and methods of this article.The practical significance of this study.It also summarizes and analyzes relevant domestic and foreign literature.Additionally,it elaborates on the research content,methods,potential innovations,and limitations,aiming to provide useful references for subsequent research.The second part mainly explains basic concepts and related theories.It defines tax competition and industrial structure to provide a clear theoretical foundation for subsequent research.Finally,it explores the impact mechanism of tax competition on the industrial structure from both macro and micro perspectives,providing theoretical support for empirical analysis.The third part analyzes the current situation.Finally,it investigates the current status of the industrial structure in the central region.The fourth part empirically analyzes how tax competition affects industrial structure upgrading in the central region.It constructs a fixed-effects model,explains variable selection and calculation,and conducts regression analysis on data from 80 cities.Additionally,it delves into the regression results,ensuring reliability through robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis.The fifth part presents conclusions and policy recommendations.Based on the above analysis,targeted policy suggestions are proposed,aiming to provide useful references for tax policy formulation and industrial structure upgrading in the central region.This thesis finds that: firstly,the benchmark regression results indicate a negative impact coefficient of-0.0129 for tax competition on industrial structure upgrading,verified at a 1%significance level.Specifically,when tax competition in the central region increases by 1%,the index for industrial structure upgrading decreases by 0.0129 units.Enhanced tax competition in the central region is not conducive to the upgrading of urban industrial structures,and tax competition among local governments has a significant negative effect on industrial structure upgrading.This suggests that the level of tax competition in the central region has already inhibited the upgrading of the region’s industrial structure.Secondly,to verify the robustness and reliability of the benchmark regression results,various methods are employed for robustness testing.Specifically,we conduct tests by replacing explanatory variables,replacing explained variables,lagging tax competition by one period,and excluding provincial capital cities.These tests validate the reliability and stability of the regression results.Thirdly,the results of heterogeneity analysis show significant differences in the inhibitory effects of tax competition on industrial structure upgrading among different provinces.Meanwhile,in regions with higher marketization levels,the inhibitory effect of tax competition on industrial structure optimization is relatively smaller.更多还原