【作者】 杨洋；

【导师】 计军平；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 应用经济学， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 城市是实现碳排放达峰的主战场,随着城镇化推进,人为碳排放显著增加。而随着技术减排的成本不断提高,挖掘城市结构减排的潜力日益受到重视。作为我国经济特区,深圳的经济发展水平位居世界前列,能源结构中以煤、油品等化石能源占主体,而且作为中国“硅谷”,深圳在全球范围内受到极大关注。因此从产业、能源和需求结构角度研究深圳碳排放及其潜力,并识别减排潜力的重要领域,可为深圳低碳发展、绿色转型提供重要政策支撑和制度保障。本文通过投入产出分析构建了包括产业、能源和需求因素的经济结构调整优化模型,旨在建立一个统一的经济结构调整对城市碳排放影响的研究框架。并利用情景分析法动态模拟了2019-2030年间深圳的碳达峰路径,定性和定量评估了经济结构调整的减排潜力及其宏观经济影响,识别出结构减排影响最大的行业,探究如何通过结构调整协同实现深圳的碳排放达峰和经济高质量发展。情景分析结果显示,2019-2030年间,在产业升级（OPT）、政府规划（GPS）以及综合结构调整情景（CSA）下,深圳可保持5.4%-6.4%的“中高速”增长,GDP将达到4.8-5.3万亿元;同时预计达到碳峰值的年份在2026-2028年之间,最可能在2027年,峰值水平分布在5355.0-5950.5万吨CO₂之间,可协同实现经济高质量增长和碳排放达峰目标。到2030年,深圳的节能潜力预计可达408.2-1046.3万吨标煤,减排潜力可达605.8-1781.9万吨CO₂;在深度技术减排情景（DTS）下,深圳通过大力发展低碳技术,可提前实现碳排放达峰并实现较低峰值水平,但其GDP增长率仅为4.8%;激进的能源转型虽然可加速实现碳达峰目标,但可能会威胁能源系统的安全性和增加经济系统的不确定性。根据本文研究,同时考虑促进低碳产业发展、能源清洁化转型和增加低碳消费等因素的综合结构调整路径,可在实现6.4%的经济增速同时,减少16.8%的能耗和25.5%的CO₂排放,是具有较高减排效益的达峰路径。深圳应通过扩大清洁能源发电项目建设,淘汰燃煤发电,增加外调电消费,促进电力业尽早实现碳排放达峰;通过加大新能源汽车推广力度,建设低碳物流体系等措施,降低交通部门碳排放增速;通过挖掘电力业和交通业的减排潜力,助力深圳实现达峰目标;本文可为城市级的碳减排研究提供路线图,说明如何通过优化经济结构来挖掘城市的碳减排潜力并实现最佳发展路线。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban areas serve as the main battleground for achieving carbon emissions peak.With the advancement of urbanization,anthropogenic carbon emissions have significantly increased.As the cost of technological emissions reduction continues to rise,there is growing recognition of the potential for emission reductions through exploring urban structural changes.As a leading economic special zone in China,Shenzhen has achieved a remarkable level of economic development and garnered substantial global attention as the"Silicon Valley"of China.However,its energy structure is predominantly reliant on fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum.Therefore,studying Shenzhen’s carbon emissions and their potential,from the perspectives of industries,energy,and demand structures,while identifying crucial areas with emission reduction potential,can provide important policy support and institutional safeguards for Shenzhen’s low-carbon development and green transformation.This article constructs an optimization model that includes adjustments to industrial structure,energy structure,and demand structure through input-output analysis.The aim is to establish a unified research framework for the impact of economic structural adjustments on urban carbon emissions.Using scenario analysis,this article dynamically simulates the carbon peak path in Shenzhen from2019 to 2030,qualitatively and quantitatively evaluates the emission reduction potential and its macroeconomic impact,identifies the industries with the most significant impact on structural emissions reduction and explores how to achieve peak carbon emissions and high-quality economic development in Shenzhen through structural adjustments.The results of the scenario analysis indicate that between 2019 and 2030,under the scenarios of industrial upgrading（OPT）,government planning（GPS）,and comprehensive structural adjustment（CSA）,Shenzhen can maintain a"moderate to high-speed"growth rate of 5.4%-6.4%.The GDP is expected to reach4.8-5.3 trillion yuan.It is also projected that the year of reaching the carbon peak will fall between 2026 and 2028,most likely in 2027.The peak level is estimated to range from 53.55 million to 59.505 million tons of CO2 emissions.This coordinated achievement of high-quality economic growth and the peaking of carbon emissions can be realized.By 2030,Shenzhen’s energy-saving potential is estimated to reach 4.08-10.46 million tons of standard coal,and the potential for emission reduction is estimated at 6.06-17.82 million tons of CO₂.Under the deep technological emission reduction scenario（DTS）,Shenzhen can achieve the peak of carbon emissions earlier and at a lower level by vigorously developing low-carbon technologies,but its GDP growth rate would be only 4.8%.While aggressive energy transition can accelerate the achievement of the carbon peak target,it may pose threats to the security of the energy system and increase uncertainty in the economic system.Based on the above research,a comprehensive structural adjustment path that takes into account factors such as promoting the development of low-carbon industries,transitioning to clean energy in the energy sector,and increasing low-carbon consumption can achieve a 6.4%economic growth rate while reducing energy consumption by 16.8%and CO₂ emissions by 25.5%.This pathway demonstrates high emission reduction benefits.Shenzhen should expand the construction of clean energy generation projects,phase out coal-fired power generation,increase imported electricity consumption,and strive to achieve the peaking of carbon emissions in the power sector at an earlier stage.Measures such as promoting the adoption of new energy vehicles and constructing a low-carbon logistics system should be implemented to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions in the transportation sector.By tapping into the emission reduction potential in the power and transportation sectors,Shenzhen can contribute to achieving the peaking target.This article provides a roadmap for urban-level carbon reduction research,explaining how to explore the carbon reduction potential of cities and achieve the optimal development path through the optimization of economic structure.更多还原