【作者】 李娜；

【导师】 张兵；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 金融学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年中央一号文件就农民就业和农民增收做出部署要求,能否持续增加农民收入已然成为解决“三农”问题的一个重要思路与努力方向。自2021年起,我国中央一号文件就建设数字乡村做出战略部署,以数字技术为依托的数字普惠金融逐步成为我国农村金融服务的主力军。数字普惠金融使实现农业农村现代化和农民持续增收成为了可能。此外,非农就业对农户增收也具有重要作用,非农岗位的多少和就业的难易是影响非农就业水平的关键。而数字普惠金融可以通过缓解信贷约束,促进企业的萌生和发展,增加非农岗位。同时,数字普惠金融可以通过缓解农村劳动力的金融约束,为其人力资本的积累和转移成本的支付提供金融支持,降低其就业难度。因此,探究数字普惠金融对农户增收的影响,非农就业在数字普惠金融与农户增收之间的作用机制,对推动农村数字普惠金融发展,提高非农就业水平,进而带动农户增收具有重要的现实意义。本文研究的主要问题是:整体上看,数字普惠金融是否有助于农户增收?数字普惠金融是否有助于提升农户非农就业水平?是否通过提升农户非农就业水平促进农户增收?本研究运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法,首先,回顾数字普惠金融、非农就业和农户增收的相关理论,并从数字普惠金融对农户收入的影响、数字普惠金融对非农就业的影响以及非农就业对农户收入的影响三方面梳理评述文献,提出假说;其次,总结整理我国数字普惠金融、农户非农就业水平和农户收入发展现状,比较不同省份间三者差异,为之后研究和建议的提出奠定现实基础;再次,将2014、2016和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据和北京大学数字普惠金融省级指数相匹配,通过构建相关模型,基于农户视角实证分析数字普惠金融指数和分维度指数对农户收入的影响,以及农户非农就业水平在两者间扮演的角色,即检验中介效应;最后,为全面了解数字普惠金融对农户收入的影响,异质性检验数字普惠金融对农户不同收入、不同区域农户收入和不同财富水平农户收入的影响。本文的研究结论如下:第一,我国各地区间数字普惠金融发展水平、不同农户间收入水平和非农就业水平存有差异;第二,数字普惠金融总指数和分指数对农户收入均有显著正向作用,数字化程度相较其他两个分指数而言影响最大;第三,非农就业水平是数字普惠金融影响农户收入的重要渠道;非农就业水平在数字普惠金融指数、使用深度、覆盖广度与农户收入间发挥部分中介作用,在数字化程度与农户收入间不呈现中介作用;第四,数字普惠金融有助于农户工资性收入的增加,而不利于农业收入和经营性收入的增加;第五,数字普惠金融对农户收入的影响存在区域间差异,数字普惠金融为中西部区域实现“弯道超车”进而实现我国区域经济均衡发展提供了可能;第六,数字普惠金融对低财富农户的增收效应高于高财富农户,数字普惠金融为促进农户间收入平等提供了渠道。本文给出以下政策建议:(1)夯实数字基础建设,多举措助推健康均衡发展。完善农村地区数字金融基础设施建设,为农村地区数字普惠金融发展提供人力和技术支撑;(2)推进数字乡村建设进程,因地制宜推动区域间均衡发展。响应中央一号文件号召,充分发挥数字普惠金融普惠性,推动东中西部区域经济均衡发展;(3)瞄准农户需求,精准提供数字金融产品。立足农户实际,根据其财富水平及要求,创新提供数字金融产品和服务,实现农户间收入均衡;(4)引导使用数字金融产品,促进农民非农就业。借力数字金融产品和服务,推动企业设立和升级,增加就业机会,提高非农就业水平,进而使实现农民持续增收成为可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2020,the No.1 central document issued a deployment requirement for farmers’ employment and farmer’ income increasing.It becomes an important way of thinking and direction of efforts to solve the “three rural issues” whether farmers’ income can continue to increase.The No.1 central document has made strategic plans for the construction of digital villages since 2021.Digital universal finance has gradually become the main force of rural financial services in China.Digital inclusive finance makes it possible to realize agricultural and rural modernization and farmer’s income acceleration.In addition,non-agricultural employment also plays an important role in increasing farmers’ income.The number of non-agricultural jobs and the difficulty of employment are the key to affect the level of non-agricultural employment.Digital inclusive finance can promote the emergence and development of enterprises and increase non-agricultural jobs by easing credit constraints.At the same time,digital inclusive finance can alleviate the financial constraints of rural labor force,provide financial support for the accumulation of human capital and the payment of transfer costs,and reduce the difficulty of employment.Therefore,exploring the impact of digital inclusive finance on increasing farmers’ income and the mechanism of non-agricultural employment between digital inclusive finance and increasing farmers’ income is of great practical significance to promote digital inclusive finance developing in rural areas,improve farmers’ non-agricultural employment level,and then increase farmers’ income.The main question of this paper is: on the whole,does digital inclusive finance help farmers increase their income? Does digital inclusive finance help to improve farmers’ non-agricultural employment level? Can digital inclusive finance increase farmers’ income by improving farmers’ non-agricultural employment level? By using the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this study firstly reviews the relevant theories of digital inclusive finance,non-agricultural employment and farmers’ income increasing,combs and reviews the literature from three aspects: the impact of digital inclusive finance on farmers’ income,the impact of digital inclusive finance on non-agricultural employment and the impact of non-agricultural employment on farmers’ income,and puts forward hypotheses;Secondly,this study summarizes and sorts out the development status of Chinese digital inclusive finance,farmers’ non-agricultural employment level and farmers’ income,and compares the differences among different provinces,so as to lay a practical foundation for future research and suggestions;Thirdly,this study matchs the data of China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)in 2014,2016 and2018 with the provincial index of digital inclusive finance of Peking University.By constructing relevant models,this study empirically analyzes the impact of digital inclusive finance index and sub dimensional index on farmers’ income and the role of farmers’ non-agricultural employment leve playing in them,that is to test the intermediary effect;Finally,in order to fully understand the impact of digital inclusive finance on farmers’ income,this study heterogeneity tests the impact of digital financial inclusion on the income of farmers in different regions and different wealth levels.The conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly,there are differences in the development level of digital inclusive finance,income level and non-agricultural employment level among different farmers in China;Secondly,the total index and sub index of digital inclusive finance have a significant positive effect on farmers’ income,and the degree of digitization has the biggest impact compared with the other two sub indexes;Thirdly,the level of non-agricultural employment is an important channel for digital inclusive finance to affect farmers’ income;The level of non-agricultural employment plays a partial intermediary role between the digital inclusive financial index,usage depth,coverage breadth and farmers’ income,but there is no intermediary effect between the degree of digitization and farmers’ income;Fourthly,digital inclusive finance is conducive to increase farmers’ wage income,but not conducive to increase agricultural income and operating income;Fifthly,there are regional differences in the impact of digital inclusive finance on farmers’ income.Digital inclusive finance provides the possibility for the central and western regions to realize “overtaking in curves” and then realize the balanced development of Chinese regional economy;Sixthly,the income increasing effect of digital inclusive finance on low wealth farmers is higher than it on high wealth farmers.Digital inclusive finance provides a channel to promote income equality among farmers.This paper gives the following policy suggestions:(1)Consolidate the digital infrastructure and take multiple measures to promote healthy and balanced development.Improve the construction of digital financial infrastructure in rural areas and provide human and technical support for the development of digital inclusive finance in rural areas;(2)Promote the process of digital village construction and promote balanced development among regions according to local conditions.Responding to the call of the No.1 central document,we should provide sufficient freedom to release the universality of digital inclusive finance,and boost the balanced development of the regional economy in the eastern,central and western regions.(3)Aim at the needs of farmers and accurately provide digital financial products.Based on the reality of farmers and according to their wealth level and requirements,innovate to provide digital financial products and services to achieve income balance among farmers;(4)Guide the use of digital financial products to promote farmers’ non-agricultural employment.By taking advantage of digital financial products and services,promote the establishment and upgrading of enterprises,increase employment opportunities and improve the level of non-agricultural employment,so as to make it possible to continuously increase farmers’ income.更多还原