【作者】 吴岩；

【导师】 马春文；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 西方经济学， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年9月中国提出了以2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和为内容的双碳目标。结合客观条件,中国提出的双碳目标时间短、任务重、完成难度高。近年来,作为经济发展的新业态和新动能,数字经济给经济社会带来了整体性变革。数字经济发展带来巨大经济利益的同时,其发展进程中产生的外部性影响尤为被人们所关注。那么,在碳排放领域,数字经济是否会对碳排放产生影响呢?如果有影响,是怎样的影响呢?碳排放水平是否会受周边地区数字经济水平影响呢?据此,本文围绕数字经济对碳排放水平的影响进行研究。首先,本文对相关理论基础进行梳理,对双碳目标、数字经济发展水平和碳排放水平的基础概念进行梳理,同时对本文所采用的数字经济发展水平、碳排放水平测度方法进行说明,依据环境库兹涅茨理论、可持续发展理论和低碳经济理论对数字经济作用地区碳排放水平的机制进行分析。其次,本文基于2011-2019年地市级经验数据,探讨了数字经济与碳排放水平间的关系、数字经济作用碳排放水平的潜在路径、影响的非线性与加入空间因素后,数字经济对邻近地区碳排放的影响。基于经验数据进行分析,研究发现,在讨论数字经济与碳排放水平的线性关系时,数字经济发展可能增加碳排放水平,这可能是由于数字经济发展初期需要大量的资源投入、数字经济发展促进了能源消耗强度高的采矿业等行业扩大再生产、数字经济发展增加了对电能的消耗造成的。数字经济通过能源消耗水平影响了碳排放水平,数字经济通过产业结构变动影响了碳排放水平。本文通过引入数字经济发展水平二次方项和门槛模型两种方式讨论数字经济对碳排放水平影响的非线性。实证结果显示,数字经济对碳排放水平的影响呈倒U型,数字经济发展初期会增加地区碳排放水平,但随着数字经济达到较高水平,数字经济发展会发挥降低地区碳排放作用。数字经济对碳排放水平的影响是非线性的,在其他条件不变的情况下,碳排放水平越低的地区数字经济促进地区碳减排的能力越强,能源强度越低的地区数字经济促进地区碳减排的能力越强,数字经济会对周边地区碳减排建设产生有利影响。本文的创新之处在于基于已有经济理论,建立新的计量模型,证实数字经济在碳减排领域的贡献,对数字经济发展水平与地区碳排放水平间的关系进行了比较充分的讨论,为扶持数字经济建设的相关政策施行提供新的依据。研究表明,数字经济对碳排放水平存在非线性影响。在数字经济发展进程中,初期可能会导致地区碳排放水平的增加,而长期来看,当数字经济与原有经济形态进一步结合,数字经济有助于降低碳排放水平,数字经济发展水平的提高,会对邻近地区的碳排放水平产生有利影响。数字经济对地区碳减排的促进作用有巨大发挥空间。为促进地区碳减排,推进实现“30·60”的双碳目标,应大力发展数字经济,强化基础设施建设,降低能源消耗水平,推动产业结构合理化建设,注重对数字经济发展水平低的弱势地区进行帮扶,促进各地数字经济的均衡发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In September 2020,China proposed a dual carbon goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.Combined with objective conditions,the dual-carbon target proposed by China has a short time,heavy task and high difficulty to complete.In recent years,as a new form of business and the momentum of economic development,the digital economy has brought overall changes to the economy and society.While digital economy brings huge economic benefits,the external impact generated in its development process is particularly concerned by people.So,in the field of carbon emissions,will the level of digital economy have an impact on regional carbon emissions? If there is,what kind of impact? Whether carbon emissions will be affected by the digital economy in areas surrounding? Therefore,this thesis focuses on the impact of digital economy on carbon emission level.First of all,this thesis sorts out the relevant theoretical basis,and sorts out the basic concepts of dual-carbon target,digital economy development level and carbon emission level.At the same time,the measurement methods of digital economy development level and carbon emission level adopted in this thesis are explained.Based on environmental Kuznets theory,sustainable development theory and low carbon economy theory,the thesis analyzes the mechanism of carbon emission level in the regions where digital economy plays a role.Secondly,based on the municipal empirical data from 2011 to 2019,we discuss the relationship between digital economy and carbon emission levels,the path of digital economy on carbon emission levels,the nonlinearity of this effect,and the impact of the digital economy on carbon emission levels in neighboring regions after adding spatial factors.Based on the empirical data,the study found that when discussing the linear relationship between them,the digital economy development may increase the level of regional carbon emissions.This may be due to early stage of digital economy development requires a large amount of resource investment,the digital economy has promoted the expansion of reproduction in industries such as mining with high energy consumption intensity,and the digital economy has increased the consumption of electric energy.The digital economy affects the carbon emissions through the level of energy consumption.The development level of digital economy affects the level of regional carbon emissions through industrial structure change.In order to discuss the nonlinearity,the quadratic term of digital economy and threshold model are introduced in this thesis.The empirical results show that the influence is inverted U-shaped.In the initial stage,The digital economy will increase the carbon emission level,but when the digital economy reaches a higher level,it will help reduce carbon emissions.The influence of digital economy on the carbon emission level is non-linear.Other things being equal,the digital economy development in regions with lower carbon emission level has a stronger ability to promote carbon emissions reduction,and the digital economy development in regions with lower energy intensity has a stronger ability to promote regional carbon emissions reduction.Digital economy spatial spillover effect can have beneficial effects on carbon reduction in areas surrounding the building.This article is based on existing economic theories and establishes a new econometric model to confirm the contribution of the digital economy in the field of carbon reduction.The relationship between the development level of the digital economy and regional carbon emission levels is fully discussed.Provide new basis for the implementation of relevant policies to support the construction of the digital economy.The study shows that the impact of digital economy on the carbon emission level is non-linear.The digital economy is in its infancy may increase the carbon emission level.In the long term,it will help reduce the carbon emissions.The ascension of the digital economy will be beneficial impact on carbon emissions in the neighborhood.The digital economy has enormous potential to promote regional carbon reduction.In order to promote regional carbon reduction and achieve the "30-60" dual carbon goals,efforts should be made to develop digital economy,strengthen infrastructure construction,reduce energy consumption levels,promote the rational construction of industrial structure,and focus on providing assistance to vulnerable areas with low levels of digital economy,promoting the balanced development of digital economy in various regions.更多还原