【作者】 朱军；

【导师】 徐海燕；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程（工业工程）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 现代社会中,各行各业都在飞速发展,各种各样的冲突事件也随之产生。冲突事件中的决策主体具有复杂性,其在冲突事件中的决策行为通常带有犹豫模糊性;冲突事件的决策者之间存在权力大小的差异,权力较小的决策者通常会受到权力较大的决策者的影响而改变自己的决策行为。这两大因素会对冲突事件的最终结局产生重大影响。因此,本文基于图模型冲突分析理论对决策者决策行为的犹豫模糊性及决策者之间的权力不对称问题进行系统建模和稳定性分析,为冲突事件的分析和解决提供重要的决策支持信息。主要研究内容包括以下两个方面:(1)考虑犹豫模糊语言的权力对称下多决策者图模型冲突分析研究。对决策者决策行为的犹豫模糊性采用犹豫模糊语言进行表示,将犹豫模糊语言信息和冲突分析图模型理论进行有效交叉融合,提出一种新的基于犹豫模糊语言信息的冲突分析图模型策略优先权排序法。(2)考虑犹豫模糊语言的权力不对称下多决策者图模型冲突分析研究。针对权力不对称下多决策者的图模型,主要研究了一个领导者两个跟随者和两个领导者一个跟随者的图模型冲突分析,将权力不对称下的两个决策者图模型冲突分析拓展至这两种情形下。在考虑了决策行为的犹豫模糊性的基础上,进一步研究了权力不对称对决策者的影响,给出了两种情形下决策者的偏好定义;对两种情形下决策者的Nash、GMR、SMR、SEQ和SSEQ五种基本稳定性进行进一步研究,分别给出了五种基本稳定性的逻辑定义,并进一步给出了逻辑定义的矩阵表达,以此促进算法实现和系统开发;对于决策者复杂的结盟关系,分别给出了两种情形下多决策者的结盟可达集与结盟改良可达集的定义。综上,本文构建了考虑犹豫模糊语言及权力不对称的多决策者图模型冲突分析模型,不仅考虑了冲突事件中决策者决策行为的犹豫模糊性,给出了考虑犹豫模糊语言的权力对称下的图模型冲突分析的计算方法;而且在此基础上进一步考虑了权力不对称问题对决策者决策行为的影响,并给出了考虑犹豫模糊语言的权力不对称下的多决策者图模型冲突分析的计算方法。最后,本文将改进后的图模型冲突理论对沭河水污染冲突事件进行分析,为解决此类冲突事件提供意见和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern society,all walks of life are developing rapidly,and various conflict events also occur.Decision-making subjects in conflict events are complex,and their decision-making behaviors in conflict events are usually hesitant and ambiguous;there are differences in power among decision-makers in conflict events,and decision-makers with less power are usually affected by greater power.change their decision-making behavior under the influence of decisionmakers.These two factors will have a significant impact on the final outcome of conflict events.Therefore,based on GMCR(the graph model for conflict resolution)theory,this paper makes a systematic modeling and stability analysis on the hesitation fuzziness of decision-making behavior and the power asymmetry between decision-makers,so as to provide important decision support information for the analysis and resolution of conflict events.The main research contents include the following two aspects:(1)Considering GMCR of multiple decision makers under the power symmetry of hesitating fuzzy language.The hesitation and vagueness of decision-makers’ behaviors are expressed by hesitation fuzzy language,the hesitation fuzzy language and the graph model for conflict analysis theory are effectively cross-fused,and a new strategy priority ranking method based on hesitant fuzzy language information is proposed.(2)Considering GMCR of multiple decision makers under the power asymmetry and hesitating fuzzy language.Aiming at GMCR of multiple decision makers under power asymmetry,this paper mainly studies GMCR of one leader with two followers and two leaders with one follower,and extends GMCR under power asymmetry to these two cases.On the basis of considering the hesitation and fuzziness of decision-making behavior,this paper further studies the influence of power asymmetry on decision-makers,and gives the definition of decision-makers’ preference in two situations;this paper further studies the five basic stabilities of Nash,GMR,SMR,SEQ and SSEQ of decision-makers in two situations,gives the logical definitions of the five basic stabilities respectively,and further gives the matrix expression of the logical definition,so as to promote the implementation of the algorithm and the development of the system;for the complex alliance relationship of decision-makers,the definitions of alliance reachable set and alliance improved reachable set of multiple decision-makers in two situations are given respectively.In summary,this paper constructs GMCR of multiple decision-makers considering hesitation fuzzy language and power asymmetry,which not only considers the hesitation fuzziness of decision-making behavior of decision-makers in conflict events,giving a calculation method of conflict analysis of graph model under power symmetry considering hesitation fuzzy language,but also considering the influence of power asymmetry on decision-making behavior of decisionmakers on this base,and giving the calculation method of GMCR of multiple decision-makers under power asymmetry considering hesitation fuzzy language.Finally,the improved GMCR theory is used to analyze the pollution conflict events of Shuhe River,so as to provide opinions and suggestions for solving such conflict events.更多还原