【作者】 王昂；

【导师】 薛景梅； 王勇军；

【作者基本信息】 河北科技大学 ， 物流工程与管理（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 数字经济推动下,伴随着居民消费持续升级、互联网与信息技术的快速发展,融合线上电商平台和线下社区实体的社区生鲜电商模式应运而生。社区电商供应链以去中心化方式高效利用社区团长的社群网络流量,结合线上电商与线下实体,将碎片化的下游需求整合为规模性订单,不同于经过多级经销商到达售卖网点的传统商超供应链,其能够以“次日达”的配送形式保证产品在短时间内送达到顾客指定提货点。但相较于传统社区商超供应链,社区电商生鲜品供应链运作的复杂性大大增加,对供应链时效性要求更高,由此导致供应链运作风险显著增加。如何进行生鲜商品供应链风险管理,对风险进行有效识别、评估和控制成为社区电商平台亟待探讨和解决的问题。本文以M电商平台生鲜商品供应链为研究对象,通过对M电商平台生鲜商品供应链风险管理现状进行分析,结合流程分析原理识别平台生鲜商品供应链不同环节的风险因素,形成供应链风险初始评估指标体系。通过调查问卷收集平台运营管理团队对风险重要程度的认知数据,使用主成分分析法对初始评估指标体系进行调整,最终确定包含4个一级指标、10个二级指标、21个三级指标的风险评估指标体系。基于评估指标体系进行M电商平台生鲜商品供应链风险综合评估,运用系统动力学仿真法分析不同风险因素对各风险环节以及各风险环节对整体供应链的损失值,通过贝叶斯网络分析法逐级得出风险因素的发生概率,建立风险评估矩阵,根据风险发生概率与损失程度数值进行风险等级划分,将风险等级与风险干预的敏感性作为最终实施供应链风险控制的依据,研究结果表明,不同风险环节存在部分高等级风险因素和高敏感性风险因素,需要重点管理。基于研究结果,提出完善供应管理体系,增强采购供应环节抗风险能力;严格规范加工作业流程,减少产品加工环节风险;优化物流配送体系,降低物流运作环节风险;降低顾客购后认知失调水平,有效防范售后服务环节风险等四条对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Driven by the digital economy,with the continuous upgrading of residents’ consumption and the rapid development of Internet and information technology,the community fresh e-commerce model that integrates online e-commerce platform and offline community entities came into being.Community e-commerce supply chain makes efficient use of the social network traffic of community leaders in a decentralized way,and integrates the fragmented downstream demand into large-scale orders by combining online e-commerce and offline entities,which is different from the traditional supermarket supply chain that reaches the sales outlets through multi-level dealers,and can ensure that the products can be delivered to the customer’s designated delivery point in a short time in the form of "next-day delivery".However,compared with the traditional community supermarket supply chain,the complexity of the operation of the community e-commerce fresh food supply chain is greatly increased,and the timeliness of the supply chain is higher,which leads to a significant increase in the operation risk of the supply chain.How to manage the risk of fresh commodity supply chain,evaluate and control risks has become an urgent problem for community e-commerce platforms.In this paper,the fresh commodity supply chain of M e-commerce platform is taken as the research object,and the risk management status of fresh commodity supply chain of M e-commerce platform is analyzed,and the risk factors of different links of fresh commodity supply chain of the platform are identified by combining the principle of process analysis,so as to form an initial evaluation index system of supply chain risk.By collecting the cognitive data of the platform operation management team on the importance of risk through questionnaires,the initial evaluation index system is adjusted by principal component analysis,and finally the risk evaluation index system including 4first-level indicators,10 second-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators is determined.Based on the evaluation index system,this paper makes a comprehensive risk assessment of fresh commodity supply chain of M e-commerce platform,analyzes the loss value of different risk factors to each risk link and the whole supply chain by using system dynamics simulation method,obtains the occurrence probability of risk factors step by step through Bayesian network analysis method,establishes a risk assessment matrix,divides the risk level according to the risk occurrence probability and loss degree,and takes the risk level and the sensitivity of risk intervention as the basis for the final implementation of supply chain risk control.The research results show that there are some high-level risk factors and high-sensitivity risk factors in different risk links,which need to be managed emphatically.Based on the research results,it is proposed to improve the supply management system and enhance the anti-risk ability of procurement and supply links;Strictly standardize the processing flow to reduce the risk of product processing;Optimize the logistics distribution system and reduce the risk of logistics operation;Four countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,such as reducing the cognitive disorder level of customers after purchase and effectively preventing the risk of after-sales service.更多还原