【作者】 孟爽；

【导师】 孔微巍；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨商业大学 ， 公共管理（社会保障）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 我国已迈入老龄化社会并呈现迅速发展态势,现阶段人口增长模式由高出生率、低死亡率、高自然增长率的传统型向低生育率、低死亡率、低自然增长率的现代型过渡,“4+2+1”家庭模式演变成主流家庭结构,势必加快我国进入深度老龄化的步伐。根据第七次全国人口普查数据显示,哈尔滨市60岁及以上老年人口 220.01万,占全市户籍人口的21.98%,其中65岁及以上人口 146.6万,占比14.65%,分别高于国家平均水平3.28和1.15个百分点。老年人口抚养比达到19.6%,对比第六次人口普查提高9.7个百分点。当前哈尔滨市老龄化社会面临老年人口激增与人口红利消退、养老需求旺盛与有效供给不足等多重困境,造成大量失独失能、孤寡空巢、高龄残障等弱势老年群体的养老服务保障问题。“时间银行”作为一种新型互助养老模式,将养老资源进行跨时空交叉互换,有助于低龄老人人力资本的开发,形成“年轻老人”以老助老的良好互助风尚,促进社区管理智能化升级,使养老服务供需匹配实现精准对接。在上述背景下,基于近年来国内外专家学者对该领域相关问题的研究,引入人口老龄化、互助养老模式、“时间银行”等核心概念,以社会交换理论、马斯洛需求层次理论、福利多元主义理论、积极老龄化理论等作为基本理论依据,分析哈尔滨市“时间银行”互助养老模式发展现状,运用SWOT-CLPV模型对其进行深入阐述,列举哈尔滨市“时间银行”发展的主要内部优势和劣势以及外部的机会和威胁,然后用系统分析的思想将各种因素相互匹配起来对其产生的抑制性、杠杆效应、问题性和脆弱性等方面加以分析,并从需求端与供给端两个维度出发,对哈尔滨市“时间银行”互助养老模式进行实地调查,将问卷调查法与访谈法相结合,选取哈尔滨市南岗区烟厂社区、香坊区海富社区、电碳社区以及平房区平盛街道和东风社区的60岁以上老年人为调查对象,搜集有效问卷数据782份并进行描述性统计分析。基于以上调研、梳理及分析,最后得出哈尔滨市“时间银行”互助养老模式虽发展初具雏形并初见成效,目前仍存在专业性的需求和供给不匹配、通存通兑难以实现、风险管理、参与主体信任度等发展挑战。对此,本文通过进一步分析国外美国、日本、英国以及国内上海、南京、广州“时间银行”互助养老模式案例,借鉴其成功经验,有针对性地提出促进哈尔滨市“时间银行”互助养老模式发展的对策,包括落实政策性扶持、提升网络信息化程度、强化资金保障、提高参与主体认知程度、优化服务质量等,以期为哈尔滨市“时间银行”互助养老模式发展提供思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has entered an aging society and is showing a rapid development trend.At present,the population growth model is transitioning from the traditional model of high birth rate,low mortality rate,and high natural growth rate to the modern model of low fertility rate,low mortality rate,and low natural growth rate.The "4+2+1" family model has evolved into the mainstream family structure,which will inevitably accelerate the pace of China’s entry into deep aging.According to the data of the seventh national population census,the elderly population aged 60 and above in Harbin is 2,2001 million,accounting for 21.98%of the city’s registered residence population,of which 1.466 million are aged 65 and above,accounting for 14.65%,3.28 and 1.15 percentage points higher than the national population respectively.The dependency ratio of the elderly population reached 19.6%,an increase of 9.7 percentage points compared to the sixth national census.The current aging society in Harbin is facing multiple difficulties,such as a surge in the elderly population and a decline in population dividends,strong demand for elderly care,and insufficient effective supply,resulting in a large number of vulnerable elderly groups such as those who are unable to provide elderly care services,widows,empty nests,and elderly people with disabilities.As a new type of mutual aid elderly care model,"Time Bank" exchanges elderly care resources across time and space,which helps to develop the human capital of young elderly people,forms a good mutual aid trend of "young elderly people" helping the elderly with the elderly,promotes the intelligent upgrading of community management,and achieves precise matching of elderly care service supply and demand.In the above context,based on the research of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on relevant issues in this field in recent years,core concepts such as population aging,mutual aid elderly care model,and"time bank" are introduced.Using social exchange theory,Maslow’s hierarchy of demand theory,welfare pluralism theory,and active aging theory as basic theoretical basis,the development status of the "time bank" mutual aid elderly care model in Harbin is analyzed.The SWOT-CLPV model is used to elaborate on it in depth,listing the main internal advantages and disadvantages of the development of the "time bank" in Harbin,as well as external opportunities and threats.Then,the system analysis approach is used to match various factors with each other to analyze the inhibitory,leverage,problem,and vulnerability aspects it produces,and from the demand side and supply side.Starting from two dimensions,a field survey was conducted on the "Time Bank" mutual aid elderly care model in Harbin.The questionnaire survey method and interview method were combined to select elderly people aged 60 and above from Yanchang Community in Nangang District,Haifu Community in Xiangfang District,Diancarbon Community,Pingsheng Street and Dongfeng Community in Pingfang District of Harbin as the survey subjects,Collect 782 valid questionnaire data and conduct descriptive statistical analysis.Based on the above research,sorting and analysis,it is finally concluded that although the "Time Bank" mutual aid elderly care model in Harbin has taken shape and achieved initial results,there are still development challenges such as mismatch between professional demand and supply,difficulty in achieving universal savings and withdrawals,risk management,and trust in participating entities.In this regard,this article further analyzes the cases of the "Time Bank"mutual aid elderly care model in the United States,Japan,the United Kingdom,as well as in Shanghai,Nanjing,and Guangzhou in China.Drawing on their successful experiences,targeted measures are proposed to promote the development of the"Time Bank" mutual aid elderly care model in Harbin,including implementing policy support,improving the level of network informatization,strengthening financial security,improving the cognitive level of participating parties,and optimizing service quality,in order to provide ideas for the development of the "Time Bank"mutual aid elderly care model in Harbin.更多还原