【作者】 李丹；

【导师】 席运江；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 科技创新是经济高质量发展的核心动力和战略支撑,科技金融则为科技创新提供资金支持和投融资服务,两者相互融合,形成了一个协同作用的复杂系统,成为我国加快经济转型、建设创新导向型经济体、实现高质量发展的重要推动力。因此,在粤港澳大湾区与社会主义先行示范区建设战略背景下,梳理珠三角城市群科技金融与科技创新的现状,分析存在问题,探究两者的耦合协调关系及动态演化情况,对推动区域经济高质量发展、深化科技创新驱动发展战略、进一步发挥金融对实体经济的服务支撑作用有着重要意义。本文基于复合系统理论与系统耦合理论,从珠三角城市群科技金融与科技创新的现实基础出发,对珠三角科技金融与科技创新耦合协调度及其动态演化进行研究。主要开展以下4个方面的讨论:首先,基于时间、空间两个角度,从多个维度分析珠三角城市群科技金融及科技创新发展现状,并深入剖析珠三角城市群科技金融与科技创新发展过程中存在的问题。其次,结合文献定性研究以及数据定量分析,构建珠三角城市群科技金融与科技创新发展水平评价指标体系,使用“CRITIC-熵权”线性组合赋权法为指标赋权。再次,基于构建的评价体系,定量测算珠三角城市群“科技金融-科技创新”复合系统的耦合协调度,比较各城市耦合协调度的差异,通过空间可视图探究珠三角城市群的耦合协调度时空格局。最后,结合Kernel密度估计、马尔可夫链算法,探究珠三角城市群科技金融与科技创新耦合协调度的动态演化特征。研究发现:珠三角城市群“科技金融-科技创新”复合系统耦合协调度存在明显的时空特点,2011-2015年为空间形态形成期,2016-2021年为空间形态稳定期,呈现“三圈层”格局。其动态演化轨迹主要表现出3个特征:第一,发展趋势较为稳定,大多数城市处于过渡期。第二,城市间差距“先减小后扩大”。第三,多极化趋势减弱。除此之外,珠三角各市耦合协调度更倾向于维持本身的状态,主要表现为组内流动性,但仍存在一定的回落风险。从子系统来看,在时空格局上,两者均呈现相似的“四梯队”格局,科技金融呈现出深圳市为首,广州市紧随其后,肇庆市连续多年处于较低水平的“1+1+6+1”梯队格局,科技创新主要呈现深圳市领跑,广州市紧随,江门市、肇庆市包揽后两位的“1+1+5+2”梯队格局;在发展趋势上,两者呈现相反的发展态势,各市科技金融发展差距逐步拉开,科技创新发展差距逐渐缩小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sci-tech innovation is the core driving force and strategic support for high-quality economic development,while sci-tech finance provides funding support and investment and financing services for sci-tech innovation.The integration of the two has formed a complex system with synergistic effects,becoming an important driving force for accelerating China’s economic transformation,building an innovative-oriented economy,and achieving high-quality development.Therefore,under the strategic background of the construction of the GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the socialist demonstration zone,it is of great significance to sort out the current situation of the sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,analyze the existing problems,explore the coupling and coordination relationship and dynamic evolution of the two,in order to promote regional economic development,deepen the development strategy driven by sci-tech innovation,and further enhance the role of finance in supporting the real economy.Based on the complex system theory and system coupling theory,this paper explores the coupling coordination and dynamic evolution of sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,with the reality of the two as the basis.The main discussion will focus on the following four aspects: First,based on the two perspectives of time and space,the current status of the development of sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is analyzed from multiple dimensions,and the problems existing in the development process are deeply explored.Second,by combining qualitative research based on literature and quantitative data analysis,an evaluation index system for the development level of sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is constructed,and the "CRITIC-entropy weight" linear combination weighting method is used to weight the indicators.Third,based on the evaluation system constructed,the coupling coordination of the " sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation" composite system in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is quantitatively measured,and the differences in coupling coordination between cities are compared.The spatial visualization is used to explore the spatial pattern of coupling coordination in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.Finally,combined with Kernel density estimation and Markov chain algorithm,the dynamic evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination of sci-tech finance and scitech innovation in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are explored.The results show that: there are significant spatiotemporal characteristics in the coupling coordination of the " sci-tech finance and sci-tech innovation" compound system in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.The period from 2011 to 2015 was the formation stage of the spatial pattern,while the period from 2016 to 2021 was the stable stage of the spatial pattern,forming a "three-circle-layer" pattern.The dynamic evolution trajectory mainly shows three characteristics: first,the development trend is relatively stable,and most cities are in a transition period.Second,the gap between cities "narrows first and then expands".Third,the trend of multipolarization is weakening.In addition,the coupling coordination of various cities in the Pearl River Delta tends to maintain their own status,mainly manifested in inter-group mobility,but there is still a certain risk of fallback.From a subsystem perspective,in terms of the spatial pattern,both exhibit a similar "four-tier" pattern.The Sci-tech finance sector presents a "1+1+6+1" tier pattern,with Shenzhen leading the way,followed closely by Guangzhou,while Zhaoqing has remained at a lower level for several years.The Sci-tech innovation sector shows a "1+1+5+2" tier pattern,with Shenzhen in the lead,followed by Guangzhou,and Jiangmen and Zhaoqing occupying the last two positions.In terms of development trends,the two subsystems show opposite development trends,with the development gap of sci-tech finance gradually widening among cities,while the development gap of sci-tech innovation is gradually narrowing.更多还原