【作者】 赵亮；

【导师】 夏仕龙；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 金融， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 中国需要稳定、健康的资本市场来为经济发展持续输入养分,而股票市场作为资本市场的重要组成部分,维护股票市场的稳定就格外重要。股价崩盘风险最能体现股票市场的稳定程度。本文从上市公司信息披露质量的角度出发,来探究上市公司股价崩盘风险。研究信息披露质量可以从多个角度出发。从信息披露的基本要求来讲,可以分为信息披露真实性,信息披露及时性,信息披露完整性和信息披露准确性。信息是依赖速度的,如果信息不及时或者说是流转速度过慢,那么都会丧失信息的原本作用。真实性则是认为,上市公司所披露的信息应该是真实的,否则由于企业管理层具有信息方面的优势,上市公司极容易损害投资者的利益。信息准确性则是说上市公司所披露的信息应该是准确的,上市公司的信息披露决定着投资者的投资行为,如果信息披露不准确则会对投资者的行为做出干扰。信息披露完整性是指上市公司的信息披露应该尽可能完整、透明,实际中管理层更倾向于公布好的消息,而压抑坏的消息,被抑制的信息集中爆发则极容易造成股价崩盘风险。而从信息披露的载体来看,有两个重要途径。第一是按照相关规定披露的定期报告,第二是企业经营活动中临时披露的公告。公司年报是上市公司一年一度的最重要的信息披露手段,对于公司的经营、财务情况都会在年报中做出详细披露,而年报的字数较多,信息量较大,也容易成为上市公司“信息操纵的重灾区”。临时公告则是上市公司日常就公司发生的符合披露原则的事项与投资者们沟通的重要手段,正是因为公告的数量较多,容易导致更多的公告披露不规范情况。从多个角度和层面来考量上市公司信息披露质量,是更为合理的方式。原因在于上市公司信息披露质量从不是某一单一的角度能代替的,年报和公告是相互的一种补充,而信息的真实性、及时性、准确性和完整性也是相互关联的。本文综合考量了信息披露的各方面要义,通过构建一个综合的得分指标来体现上市公司的信息披露质量。之后通过实证分析得出结论,上市公司信息披露质量与股价崩盘风险之间存在负相关关系。除此之外,媒体报道对于企业的信息披露是一种重要的补充渠道,媒体在传播信息的过程重中,一定程序上消减了企业与投资者之间的信息差。媒体行使公共监督职能时,能够规范上市公司的信息披露行为。媒体在一定程度上降低了上市公司与投资者之间的信息不对称水平,所以本文还加入了媒体报道的调节效应分析。通过研究本文得出如下结论:第一,上市公司信息披露质量与股票崩盘风险之间存在显著的负相关关系。第二,媒体报道可以增强上市公司的信息披露质量与股价崩盘风险之间的负向关系,对于原本信息披露质量较低的公司增强作用更明显,网络媒体相较于传统报纸媒体,增强作用更明显。根据本文的研究结论,分别对上市公司和监管部门提出以下针对性建议。首先对于上市公司,要积极地、认真地履行信息披露义务,同时要注重信息披露质量的各方面内涵,通过真实的、及时的、准确的、完整的披露信息,可以有效降低本公司股票的崩盘风险。其次对于监管部门,可以适当的增加对违规披露信息的处罚,使上市公司违规披露信息的成本增加,还可以增强对于媒体的建设,更好地维护股票市场的稳定。更多还原

【Abstract】 China requires a stable and healthy capital market to continuously provide nourishment for economic development.As an integral part of the capital market,maintaining the stability of the stock market is of paramount importance.The risk of a stock price collapse is the most accurate indicator of the stability of the stock market.This paper investigates the risk of stock price collapse for listed companies from the perspective of the quality of their information disclosure.The study of information disclosure quality can be approached from various angles.In terms of the fundamental requirements of information disclosure,it can be divided into authenticity,timeliness,completeness,and accuracy of information disclosure.Information relies on speed;if information is not timely or circulates too slowly,it will lose its original purpose.Authenticity implies that the information disclosed by listed companies should be truthful,as listed companies,due to their information advantage,can easily harm the interests of investors.Accuracy means that the information disclosed by listed companies should be precise,as it influences investor behavior;inaccurate disclosure can disrupt investor actions.Completeness signifies that the information disclosed by listed companies should be as comprehensive and transparent as possible.In practice,management often prefers to disclose positive news while suppressing negative news,and the sudden release of suppressed information can easily lead to the risk of a stock price collapse.Regarding the mediums of information disclosure,there are two significant channels: firstly,the disclosure of periodic reports according to relevant regulations,and secondly,ad-hoc announcements of enterprise operational activities.The annual report is the most important means of information disclosure for listed companies on an annual basis,providing detailed disclosure of a company’s operations and financial conditions.However,due to its lengthy content and extensive information,the annual report can become a "hotspot for information manipulation" by listed companies.Adhoc announcements,on the other hand,are essential means for listed companies to communicate events that adhere to disclosure principles on a daily basis.Due to their higher frequency,ad-hoc announcements can result in a greater likelihood of nonstandard disclosures.Comprehensively evaluating the importance of information disclosure from various aspects and dimensions is the most rational approach.This is because the quality of information disclosure by listed companies cannot be encapsulated solely from one singular perspective.Annual reports and ad-hoc announcements complement each other,and the authenticity,timeliness,accuracy,and completeness of information are interrelated.This paper takes a holistic approach by constructing a comprehensive score for the quality of information disclosure by listed companies to reflect their overall performance.Subsequently,through empirical analysis,it is concluded that there exists a negative correlation between the quality of information disclosure by listed companies and the risk of a stock price collapse.Furthermore,media reports serve as a vital supplementary channel for information disclosure by enterprises.In the process of disseminating information,media,to a certain extent,reduces the information gap between enterprises and investors.When media outlets perform their public oversight function,they can regulate the information disclosure behavior of listed companies.Media,to a certain extent,diminishes the information asymmetry between listed companies and investors.Hence,this paper includes an analysis of the moderating effect of media reports.The following conclusions are drawn from this study: Firstly,there exists a significant negative correlation between the quality of information disclosure by listed companies and the risk of a stock price collapse.Secondly,media reports can enhance the negative relationship between the quality of information disclosure by listed companies and the risk of a stock price collapse.This effect is more pronounced for companies with initially lower information disclosure quality.Online media,compared to traditional print media,has a more pronounced enhancing effect.Based on the research conclusions,specific recommendations are presented for both listed companies and regulatory authorities.Firstly,listed companies should actively and earnestly fulfill their information disclosure obligations while paying attention to all aspects of information disclosure quality.By disclosing genuine,timely,standardized,and comprehensive information,they can effectively reduce the risk of a stock price collapse for their stocks.Secondly,regulatory authorities could consider appropriately increasing penalties for improper information disclosure by listed companies,thereby increasing the cost of such violations.Furthermore,enhancing the development of media can better maintain the stability of the stock market.更多还原